中國自從1978年改革開放後,歷經30餘年的經濟發展,迄今已經搖身一變成為東北亞、乃至於全球的政經大國。其強大的經濟能力、軍事能力及國際影響力,逐漸成為具有威脅美國霸權的潛在挑戰國,從而也深刻地影響東北亞各主要國家的政經與對外政策。 從1990年至今,日本、南韓、台灣都曾因為國內經濟不振,而把中國崛起當作發展的契機。然而隨著國內政權的輪替與重大國際事件的衝擊,日本、南韓紛紛調整對中國的政策,而呈現向美國靠攏的局面,僅有台灣目前仍因與中國經貿深度互賴,而無法脫離中國的勢力範疇。 美國總統歐巴馬在國際議題上歷經多次美中衝突後,逐漸對中國崛起展現出圍堵的態勢。從霸權穩定理論來看,美中之間的競爭與合作,正逐漸白熱化。儘管兩國在諸多國際議題與經貿上有合作的空間,但不可否認,在未來的30年間,美中兩國的角色與國家利益的衝突,在中國實力的持續增強下,將逐漸導引著兩國走向「大國政治的悲劇」。
Since the economic reform and open-door policy in 1978, after more than 30 years of economic development, until now People’s Republic of China has been transformed into a Northeast Asian power, even a global political and economic power. Its powerful economic capability, military force and international influence have made it a potential country which could threat the hegemony of the United States, thus influence deeply the political and economic policies of the main Northeast Asian countries. From 1990 to now, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have taken China’s rise as an opportunity because of the weakness of the domestic economic. Therefore for the sake of the rotations of domestic regimes and the impacts of important international events, Japan and South Korea gradually adjusted the policies to P.R.C. to tend to the situation to close to the United States, only Taiwan still cannot leave from the sphere of influence of P.R.C. because of the deep interdependence in the economic and trade. After several conflicts on the international issues between the United States and People’s Republic of China, U.S. President Barack Obama gradually adapted the containment policy to China’s rise. From the theory of hegemonic stability, the competition and cooperation between the United States and People’s Republic of China become gradually white-hot. Although there is space in many international issues and bilateral economic and trade cooperation, but it is undeniable that the roles of the U.S. and P.R.C. and the conflicts of national interests, for the sake of the continued increase in China’s power will gradually lead the two countries to the “Tragedy of Great Power Politics.”