扁馬政府之大陸政策對我軍事安全之分析：一個層次分析之研究觀點

兩岸關係是東亞區域穩定與安全的核心之一，對臺灣而言，若有良性的兩岸關係將有助於拓展對外的經貿與政治合作關係，以及緩和國內的政治鬥爭，此乃是當前重要的課題。本研究以「扁馬政府之大陸政策對我軍事安全之分析：一個層次分析之研究觀點」爲題，其目的是希望透過相關理論與問題的彙整與回顧，探尋（一）影響軍事安全的因素及其內涵。（二）重要人士或決策者對國家安全議題的態度及行為之影響。（三）歸納兩岸交流影響我軍事安全之變因。即以「層次分析」探討兩岸政策對我軍事安全之影響，找出影響臺海和平的變因。 2000年及2008年臺灣兩次政黨輪替，造成兩岸關係波折起伏，其變化因素與決策者有極大關係。2008年起陳水扁執政期間之政策歸納為（一）最初頻仍釋出善意（二）強調自我本土化（三）換取臺灣獨立。2008年馬英九政府執政以來，臺海政策主軸有一、「以臺灣為主，對人民有利」的原則，開展兩岸關係。二、以「擱置爭議、追求雙贏」，推動兩岸務實對等的協商與交流。三、以「威脅最小化，機會最大化」看待兩岸間的互動。四、以「活路外交」，推動兩岸在國際場合和解休兵。現階段美國對臺海政策仍秉持著「雙重明確」之原則，主要在明示美國不支持臺獨，不願見到臺灣試圖挑起臺海衝突，即要求臺灣維持臺海情勢之「現狀」。筆者建議政府之臺海政策重點為一、推動兩岸交流，重視兩岸協商。二、推動活路外交，達成兩岸外交休兵之目的。乃以加強臺灣與中國關係為實際重點，希冀對中國釋出善意，以獲取兩岸關係之穩定，進而獲得美國對臺灣之重視與支持，使臺灣能在和平且主權獨立中發展。

關鍵字

大陸政策；軍事安全；層次分析

並列摘要

Cross-Strait relation is one of the important issues to the political stability and security of the Eastern Asia region. In terms of Taiwan, well relations will not only contribute to the foreign and political co-operation but also relieve domestic political disputes. That becomes a vital topic nowadays. The purpose of this study is to explore--- (1) the elements of affecting military security (2) the attitudes and movements of policy-makers to the national security (3) to sum the variables of Cross-Strait interaction to the military security by literature review. To figure out the key variables of Cross-Strait peace it will go through by examining the policy to the military security. Through twice regime changes on Taiwan in 2000 and 2008, the tensions of Cross-Strait relations were highly related to the authorities. The summary of the Mainland China’s policies of the former president—Chen Sha-Ben is that (1) releasing good will to the Mainland China at beginning (2) concentrating on localization (3) claiming the independence of Taiwan. Since 2008, the Ma’s government has switched the poles of Cross-Strait policy--- (1) to expand Cross-Strait relation under the principle of Taiwan’s biggest advantages (2) to promote realistic negotiation and interaction by putting paradoxes aside (3) the principle of Cross-Strait is to minimize the political threats and maximize economic opportunities (4) to make a cease-fire agreement in international relation. Currently, the U.S. still sustains the double standards which mean that to declare the independence of Taiwan is not permitted and to avoid Cross-Strait conflicts. In others words, to stick to the status quo between Taiwan and Mainland China is the principle. This research finds that the core points to enhance to Cross-Strait relations are to raise mutual interactivities and discussions and to suspend diplomatic competitions. By doing so, Taiwan can both receive good responds from Mainland China and own supports from the U.S.