公司媒體管理對於財務事件影響之研究：以企業財務危機為例

柯建全(Chien-Chuan Ko)

指導教授 ： 王明昌

國立中正大學/管理學院/企業管理學系/碩士(2012年)

摘要

本研究試圖檢定企業媒體管理與財務危機之相關性，探討企業發生財務危機時，在消息面上是隱惡揚善還是忠實以告。本研究採用1995年至2010年發生財務危機事件之上市櫃公司作為主要研究對象，採用Support Vector Machine(SVM)作為機器學習演算法和分類預測的模組，先將研究樣本公司的新聞做標示分類成好消息、壞消息和一般消息三類，再利用logistic和order probit來探討新聞數量與新聞正負向對財務事件的相關性。
本文實證結果顯示，企業在發生財務危機前一年開始，壞消息會持續揭露，真實反應財務危機的前兆；在財務危機事件日前一季，企業利用媒體管理，塑造出好消息的氛圍；企業在壞消息持續揭露的氛圍下，依舊利用媒體管理，扭轉消息面的訊息含意；公司媒體管理活動程度愈高，愈造成後續市場回復正常水準的幅度愈大。

關鍵字

財務危機損失程度 ； 支援向量機 ； 財務危機 ； 媒體管理

並列摘要

This paper tries to examine the relationship of enterprise media management and financial crisis. Using a 1995-2010 dataset of those sample firms with financial crisis and the related matching firms in Taiwan Stock Exchange and Taiwan OTC Exchange, this study investigates whether enterprise with financial crisis do media management. In this paper, Support Vector Machine (SVM), as a machine learning algorithm and classification prediction module, use to do the news marked classified as good news, bad news and general news into three categories. Then use logistic and order pribit model to investigate the relationship of new trend and financial crisis.
Our findings show that from the year before the financial crisis, the bad news will continue to expose and reaction of the precursor of the financial crisis. The previous quarter of the financial crisis, enterprise will use media management to shape the atmosphere of the good news.In the atmosphere of bad news continue to expose, enterprise still use media management to reverse the new trend. The higher of corporate media management activity level, the larger affact of the market returns to normal levels.

並列關鍵字

Loss of Corporate Financial Cirsis ； Support Vector Machine ； Financial Cirsis ； Media Managment

參考文獻

Altman, E. I. (1968) Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23 (4): 589-609.

Beaver, W. H. (1966) Financial ratios as predictors of failure. Journal of Accounting Research, 4 (Supplement): 71-102.

Chang, C. C. and Lin,C. J. (2001) "LIBSVM: Alibrary for support vector machines,".

DECHOW, P. M., SLOAN, R. G. and SWEENEY, A. P. (1996), Causes and Consequences of Earnings Manipulation: An Analysis of Firms Subject to Enforcement Actions by the SEC. Contemporary Accounting Research, 13:1–36.

Daily, C. M. and D. R. Dalton. 1994. Corporate governance and the bankrupt firm: an empirical assessment. Strategic Management Journal, 15 (8): 643-654.