- 學位論文
傾向的哲學問題：機率進路的可行性辦法
The Question of Disposition: a Possible Solution from the Perspective of Probability
摘要
傾向概念與我們的生活息息相關，但是其定義似乎還未得到一個廣泛的共識。1920年代開始，卡納普(R. Carnap)試著以直覺的方式為傾向做出定義分析，但其定義也被直覺反駁，在做過多種嘗試後，他放棄了對傾向做出定義分析。在1960年代，路易士(David Lewis)在分析傾向概念上做出重大突破，他主張傾向概念分析要以反事實條件句捕捉，且將傾向分析區分成兩步驟，而得到一個普遍被接受的簡單條件句分析(Simple Conditional Analysis, SCA)。然而馬汀(C. B. Martin)卻對SCA提出有效的反例，使得路易士必須修改SCA。但是路易士修改後的改良式條件句分析(Reformed Conditional Analysis, RCA)卻還是會遭遇強斯頓(Mark Johnston)提出的反例，而無法獲得一個令人滿意的結果。在本文中，筆者試圖利用機率來說明傾向：將皮爾士(C. S. Peirce)和費策爾(J. H. Fetzer)對機率的分析運用在定義傾向上。這個以機率來定義傾向概念的方式，優點在於能夠有效的回應馬汀和強斯頓的反例；但這個方式的缺點在於：由於機率本身的特徵，會使得此法在定義傾向歸屬時，碰到其他的難題。本文旨在說明學者們在定義傾向概念時所遭遇的困難，並討論機率方法是否可以成功地定義傾向概念。
並列摘要
Dispositions are commonplace in our life, but there is not a satisfactory analysis of dispositions yet. At 1920s, R. Carnap tried to construct an intuitive analysis of dispositions, but, he gave up that analysis because of unsolvable difficulties. After several attempts, he finally abandoned the task of analyzing of dispositions. At 1960s, David Lewis had an important development of conditionals, so he tried to use counterfactual conditionals to analyze dispositions. And, by two steps, Lewis defined a generally accepted analysis of dispositions, i.e. simple conditional analysis (SCA). However, C. B. Martin gave a sensible counterexample against SCA. Consequently, Lewis modified his SCA to dismiss the counterexample. The reformed version is also known as Reformed Conditional Analysis (RCA). RCA can resolve Martin’s counterexample, but it still is not a satisfactory analysis because it encounters Mark Johnston’s and other’s counterexamples. In this paper, I try to take C. S. Peirce's and J. H. Fezter's analysis of the notion of probability to analyze dispositions. I will show that if we use the notion of probability to analyze dispositions (PSCA), then we can endure those counterexamples in every case. However, there are still some difficulties for PSCA, I will try to resolve those difficulties in this paper. And if everything goes the right way, then there is, indeed, a satisfactory analysis of dispositions at hand.