- 學位論文
美國『重返亞洲』後對兩岸關係影響之研究
Research on the lnfluence on Cross-Strait Relations After the U.S. “Return to Asia”
摘要
本研究以美國總統歐巴馬之「重返亞洲」戰略為研究核心，以戰略三角理論為基礎，而以文獻分析法為主要研究方法，並就「重返亞洲」戰略所發生之歷史脈絡，以及以「重返亞洲」之戰略開展下，美國政府所採用的「再平衡」、「多重平衡」為運作原則，於亞洲所進行之軍事、經貿布局，並且亦析論及所影響到的中台關係。 本研究所得出之發現有二，於下分述。 1.「重返亞洲」戰略是一種因應時代氛圍，而起的另一種「圍堵」戰略。 二次大戰後冷戰時期，美國曾採「圍堵」政策來防止蘇俄擴張，「重返亞洲」戰略是一種因應國際氛圍，以及和平崛起之姿的中國，所建構出的另類以中國為主的和平圍堵戰略。 2.美中台三角家族現況，有利於台灣的迴旋空間。 「重返亞洲」戰略下，馬英九政府的「傾中」、「和美」、「友日」的戰略，致令美中台三角表面是呈現三邊家族關係，是一種相對和諧的關係，這種情況下，未來與哪個國家聯合而形成結婚型的三角關係，某種程度可決定於台灣的態度，而在美中兩大國，均不可能坐視台灣任憑對方如何處置的態勢下，台灣亦可利用兩者間的張力，為自己謀求最大益處。 至於本研究所提出之相關政策建議亦有二： 1.台灣於兩岸關係上，需要更加務實而現實的戰略思考。 2. 美國「重返亞洲」下，台灣模糊戰略空間之思考。
並列摘要
The study centers on U.S. President Barack Obama’s “Return to Asia” strategy, where we apply the strategic triangle theory as the basis and using document analysis as our primary research method. Further on, we review the origins and development of “Return to Asia”, and also the deployment of this strategy, to discuss the “rebalancing” and multi-tier “balancing” operational principles of the U.S. government’s military and trade arrangements toward in Asia. The study then discusses how it influences the relation of China and Taiwan. The study concluded the following two conclusions: 1. The “Return to Asia” is another type of “containment” strategy shaped by the Present circumstances. After World War II, the USA adopted a containment policy during the Cold War to prevent Soviet expansion. The “Return to Asia” is a strategy in response to the international atmosphere which serves as a different and peaceful containment strategy towards China’s peaceful rise. 2.The current strategic triangle, US-China-Taiwan relations, shall bring an advantage for Taiwan’s buffer position. Under this “Return to Asia” strategy, the “pro-China, pro-USA and pro-Japan” Policy of Ma Ying-jeou administration was able to establish a relatively harmonious image among the three sides of the strategic triangle (US, China, and Taiwan), Under this situation, the forming of a romantic and marriage-like alliance with a nation will be determined, on a certain level, by Taiwan’s attitude. The United States and China, two powerful countries, will not tolerate its opponent to have a dominating power over Taiwan. As a result, Taiwan will be able to seek the greatest beneficiary by taking advantage of the tension between USA and China. The study also provides two suggestions regarding to relevant policies: 1.Based on the cross-strait relation, Taiwan needs to develop a more practical and realistic strategy. 2.Taiwan developing an indistinct strategy under U.S. “Return to Asia” policy.