- 學位論文
景氣循環與投資人情緒對企業投資支出、就業成長與融資方式之影響
The Effect of Business Cycle and Investor Sentiment on Firm Investment, Employee Growth, and External Financing
摘要
本研究探討投資人情緒與景氣循環對外部融資成本的影響程度，透過觀察企業投資支出的反應來衡量是否造成財務限制。本研究發現在投資人情緒高昂及景氣擴張期間，Tobin’s Q交乘項對投資支出、就業成長及外部融資呈現正向的邊際影響，現金流量交乘項在景氣擴張期間與投資支出、就業成長及債務融資呈現正向邊際影響，現金流量交乘項對股票融資呈現負向邊際影響，而在投資人情緒高昂期間與投資支出、就業成長及外部融資呈負向邊際影響。以上結果表示在投資人情緒高昂期間，低現金流量的企業需要募集更多資金來進行投資，而擁有較多投資機會的企業亦會把握時機自外部募集資金進行投資計畫。本研究結果顯示景氣循環與投資人情緒變數對於外部融資成本有顯著的影響。
並列摘要
This study investigated the level of effect that investor sentiment and the business cycle exert on external financing costs. By observing the responses reflected in firms investment spending, we examined whether such factors create financial restrictions. We also found that during periods of high investor sentiment and economic expansion, the relationships between Tobin’s Q interaction and investment, employment growth, and external financing showed positive marginal effects. During periods of economic expansion, the relationships between the cash flow interaction and investment, employment growth, and debt financing also showed positive marginal effects, whereas the relationship between the cash flow interaction and equity financing exhibited a negative marginal effect. During periods of high investor sentiment, the relationships between the cash flow interaction and investment, employee growth, and external financing showed negative marginal effects. These results indicated that during periods of high investor sentiment, low cash flow firms are required to external finances to allow investment. Firm with valuable growth opportunities also generate external funds by conducting the required investment plans. The results of this study demonstrate that variables of business cycle and investor sentiment exert substantial effects on external financing costs.