Earnings manipulation is a form of management fraud that is operated to deceive outside stakeholder. Academic researchers have been endeavored to model the relationship between certain financial characteristics and earnings manipulation. Our study mainly focuses on the prediction of Taiwan stock return. We rely on models in Beneish (1997, 1999) to estimate the probability of manipulation (M-score) and provide an in-depth examination of the predictive power of the M-score to Taiwan stock return.