中國崛起使其成為對全球政經具有重大影響力的新興強權,雖然一再對外宣稱「和平崛起」,但是在國際間強勢的作為,除引起鄰近國家的不安,亦使得冷戰後的支配性強權美國推動「亞太再平衡」戰略重返亞洲以為因應。美國重返亞洲,強化與亞洲傳統盟國日本、韓國、菲律賓之同盟關係,並拓展與東協之政經軍關係,在東海釣魚台主權爭端及南海主權爭端中尋求切入點,以制衡中國的崛起。國際關係之權力轉移理論,似乎預言了美國與中國未來的衝突。本文嘗試以宋學文教授創建之「3i決策模型」,從「理念」(1st i)、「利益整合」(2nd i)及「制度化作為」(3rd i)等方面,檢視美國與中國在東海釣魚台主權爭端及南海主權爭端中的立場。美國雖一再表達重返亞洲並非為了圍堵中國,但作為一個國際體系守護者,美國命定成為抑制中國的角色。中國對釣魚台主權爭端與南海主權爭端的處理態度,將成為中國是否能夠和平崛起的試金石。
Its rising makes China into an emerging power having significant global economic and political influence. Although it externally repeated claims of “peaceful rise”, as being strong internationally, in addition to causing unrest in neighboring countries, it makes the United States, the dominant power after the Cold War to promote the "Asia-Pacific rebalancing" strategy as a response to return to Asia. The United States returned to Asia to strengthen relationship with Asian traditional allies, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, and to expand relations with ASEAN’s politics, economy and army, seeking entry point in the sovereignty disputes about Diaoyu Islands at East China Sea to counterbalance China’s rise. Power Transition Theory, the ground for the transfer of power in international relations seems to foretell the future conflicts between the United States and China. This essay attempts, by “3i Decision-making Model” created by Prof. Soong, Hseik-Wen, from such aspects as ideas (1st i), interests (2nd i) and institutionalization (3rd i) to view the positions of the United States and China about the sovereignty disputes occurred in Diaoyu Islands at East China Sea, and in South China Sea. Although the United States repeatedly expressed that returning to Asia is not to contain China, as a guardian of the international system, the United States is ordained becoming a role to suppress China. China’s attitude to handle the sovereignty disputes about Diaoyu Islands and South China Sea will become a touchstone whether China could rise peacefully.