資本流動與不動產價格：新興經濟體的實證分析

Capital Flows and Real Estate Prices: An Analysis for the Emerging Markets

黃大祐(Da-You Huang)

指導教授 ： 何泰寬 ； 葉國俊

國立中正大學/管理學院/經濟系國際經濟研究所/碩士(2014年)

摘要

本文的研究目的，在藉由控制特定的經濟、金融特徵變數，檢視東歐、東亞、拉丁美洲新興經濟體，資金流動對於不動產價格的影響。主要資料來源為國際清算銀行資料庫，並採用一般最小平方法 (GLS) 處理。實證結果顯示，在東亞新興市場國家，資金流動對於房價指數具有影響力。雖然該地區多數國家呈資金淨流出，但相對金額較低的外人資金流入，仍可能導致房地產價格的顯著上漲，因此外人資金流入相較於反映資金流動淨值的經常帳餘額，對於房價指數的變動似更具解釋能力。而在資金淨流入的東歐市場國家，外人資金流入同樣對房地產市場的繁榮亦產生類似的效應。

關鍵字

不動產價格 ； 國際金融整合 ； 資金流動 ； 新興經濟體

並列摘要

The purpose of this study is viewing the liquidity for the real estate prices affect the emerging economies of Eastern Europe, East Asia and Latin America in particular by controlling the economic, financial characteristics variables. The main sources are from International Settlements Bank database, and we use the general method of least squares (GLS) process. The empirical results show that capital flows has an impact for the price index in the East Asian emerging market countries. Although most of the countries in the region show net outflow of funds, but relatively low amount of direct investment abroad may still lead to a significant rise of real estate prices. Thus, direct investment abroad has more explanatory power on the price index changes comparing to the current account balance reflecting net inflows of funds. In the Eastern European markets with net inflows, direct investment abroad has same a similar effect on the housing boom.

並列關鍵字

Emerging Markets ； Real Estate Prices ； Capital Flows

參考文獻

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