美國量化寬鬆貨幣政策影響亞太區域貨幣及經濟之探討

The Impact of US Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy on the Asia-Pacific Region's Monetary and Economy

丁裕家(Yu-Jia Ding)

指導教授 ： 王明昌

國立中正大學/管理學院/企業管理學系/博士(2015年)

摘要

2007至2008年「金融海嘯」後美國聯準會實施量化寬鬆貨幣政策，衝擊全球經濟穩定與發展，匯率波動影響各國總體經濟風險亦隨之提高。我國與亞太區域國家貿易總值正逐年快速成長，亞太地區貨幣匯率的變動已成為牽動區域經貿市場的重要因素。為觀察量化寬鬆貨幣政策對我國與亞洲區域國家貨幣及經濟之衝擊，本研究應用時間序列方法建構各國匯率及總體經濟變數模型觀察其動態關連性。研究結果發現量化寬鬆政策實施後對貨幣匯率產生推升作用，然而隨著時間推移其影響則逐漸遞減，對於各國貨幣及經濟未帶來負面效應。亞太地區貨幣匯率走勢相當分歧，當市場不確定增加時，可能成為熱錢套利之對象，且亞太地區國多數為出口導向國家，在升值不利出口的前提下，勢必對匯率進行干預，恐引起國際貨幣的貶值競賽。量化寬鬆雖未造成亞太區域市場大幅度波動，但當實體經濟獲得改善量化寬鬆政策退場時，過去所創造大量貨幣供給可能對市場造成衝擊。目前國際資金在中國大陸、東協國家等地投資相當熱絡，以出口貿易為主的經濟發展模式處於成熟階段，台灣應加強與亞太區域國家經貿合作，建立官方交流與溝通對話平台，來降低亞洲區域貿易匯率與經濟波動風險，避免區域貿易失衡與金融危機發生。

關鍵字

時間序列分析 ； 匯率 ； 總體經濟 ； 量化寬鬆貨幣政策

並列摘要

After the “Financial Crisis” of 2007-2008, the U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Fed) implemented quantitative easing (QE) policy and affected global economic stability and development, fluctuations in exchange rates cause a country's overall economic risk increases. International trade value between Taiwan and the Asia-Pacific region’s nations is growing rapidly year by year, changes in currency exchange rates of the Asia Pacific region has become an important factor affecting regional economic markets. To observe the impact of QE monetary policy on the economies of Taiwan and the Asian region’s nations, this study applies the method of time series and builds exchange-rate and economic variables model of overall nations to observe the dynamic relations. The results show that after the implementation of QE affects the revaluation on exchange rate, but over time its impact is gradually decreasing, for the national currency and the economy does not have a negative effect. The exchange rate movements of Asia-Pacific region’ nations fairly are different. By the market uncertainty increases, the currencies of Asia-Pacific region’ nations may become the object of hot money arbitrage. The Asia-Pacific countries mostly are export-oriented country, under the premise of appreciation againsts export trade, the exchange rate is bound to intervene for fear of causing the race of depreciation. QE not resulted in significant fluctuations in the Asia-Pacific region’ economy, but to get at the real economy to improve by QE policy, past a lot of the money supply created by possible impact on the market. The current international funds to invest in China, ASEAN countries, and other places quite warm to export-oriented economic development model in an upward trend stage, Taiwan should strengthen economic and trade cooperation with regional countries in Asia, the establishment of official exchanges and communication platform for dialogue to reduce risk Asian regional trade and economic exchange rate fluctuations, to avoid regional imbalances and the financial crisis.

並列關鍵字

Time series analysis ； Macroeconomics ； Quantitative easing policy ； Exchange rate

參考文獻

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