應用誤差修正模型(ECM)分析影響印度尼西亞粗製棕櫚油(CPO)生質柴油供應之研究

Factor Influencing Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Biodiesel Supply in Indonesia Using Error Correction Model (ECM)

魏波兒(Larasati Sukmadewi Wibowo)

指導教授 ： 黃文琪

國立屏東科技大學/管理學院/農企業管理系所/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6346/NPUST.2015.00040

摘要

印尼具有發展生質柴油以作為替代能源供應的良好條件。政擬定了相關的法規，以加速生質柴油產的發展。然在新的產業發展各實施政策之始階段，緩慢且不穩定。為了解影響印尼生質柴油供應的因素，本研究應用誤差修正模型(ECM)，分析探討長期及期影響生質柴油的因素，採用2010年元月至2013年12月的月資料進行估算。研究結果顯示，在短期內生質柴油價格、粗製棕櫚油(CPO)價格，以及生產能量(潛勢)對印尼的生質柴油供應具有統計上顯著的影響。從測度受到衝擊後再度達到長期均衡的誤差修正係數(ECT)值為-0.0310，表示因前期不均衡的結果在本期的修正率達到3.10%。

關鍵字

誤差修正模型(ECM) ； 供應生質柴油 ； 生質柴油價格 ； CPO價格 ； 生產能量

並列摘要

Indonesia is in a good position todevelop biodiesel industry for alternative energy supply. The government issued legislations to accelerate the development of biodiesel industry. However, the growth was relatively slow and unstable, especially during the initiating stage of the new policy. The purpose of this study was to knowthe factors affecting supply of biodiesel in Indonesia, using Error Correction Model (ECM) to determine the long term and short term relationship. Monthly data from January 2010 to December 2013 was used for the estimation. The results showed that in the short term, the price of biodieseland production capacity has a significant influence on the supply of biodiesel in Indonesia. In the long term, production capacity, price of CPO, and supply of biodiesel in previous year has a significant influence on the supply of biodiesel in Indonesia.The coefficient of Error Correction Term (ECT), which showed how quickly equilibrium is reached again into the long term equilibrium, was estimated -0.0310indicated that disequilibrium in the previous period corrected in the current period amounted to 3.10 percent.

並列關鍵字

Error Correction Model (ECM) ； Supply of Biodiesel ； Price of Biodiesel ； Price of CPO ； Production Capacity

參考文獻

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