應用降雨資料補遺及預測虎頭埤水庫進水量

Prediction and Supplement of Hu-Tou Pei Reservoir Inflow using Precipitation Data

許育榮(Yu-Lung Hsu)

指導教授 ： 葉一隆

國立屏東科技大學/工學院/土木工程系所/碩士(2009年)

https://doi.org/10.6346/NPUST.2009.00289

摘要

水庫進水量是防洪操作之重要依據，位於台南縣之虎頭埤水庫為嘉南農田水利會所管理水庫之一，其規模屬中型水庫，集水面積為715公頃。水庫之集水區上游區域尚無雨量站及進水量監測紀錄，而欲得知降雨量與進水量的關係，係利用設於溢洪道之雨量站，並對應水庫水位與溢洪道流量計算所得。
對於集水區規模如虎頭埤水庫者，其水庫進水量與降雨量具顯著關係。因此，本文以降雨-逕流模式中之黑盒模式將水庫視為一個系統，降雨量為輸入，進水量為輸出，以2007年6月至2008年9月之13場降雨之時雨量，以複廻歸分析建立降雨量與水庫進水量之模式為Qt=1071 Pt + 1442 pt-1+ 942 pt-2 + 9235，其中 為水庫進水量， 為t時間之降雨量、 為t時間前1小時之降雨量及 為t時間前2小時之降雨量，將此作為水庫進水量推估模型。並為建立水庫進水量預估模式，本文利用灰色預測模式預估降雨量，再以降雨量推估水庫進水量。其分析結果顯示此法適於集水區較小之水庫，在補遺及預測進水量方面，亦可作為水庫操作参考。

關鍵字

降雨量 ； 進水量 ； 複廻歸分析 ； 灰色理論

並列摘要

Hu-Tou-Pei reservoir, located in Tainan County, Taiwan, is managed by the Chia-Nan Irrigation Association. The reservoir is of medium scale and the catchment area is 715 ha. Unfortunately, there is no precipitation station and the water intake monitoring records are from the upstream reservoir catchment area. The relationship between the amount of reservoir water intake and the rainfall in the catchment area is determined using rainfall records from the spillway; the spillway discharge is used to calculate the water intake. In this study, the reservoir was regarded as a system in which a precipitation - runoff model was considered as a black box model. The precipitation was used as the input variable and the water intake of the reservoir was used as the output variable. The hourly rainfall data from 13 June, 2007 to September, 2008 were used to establish the relationship between the rainfall amount and the reservoir water intake using a multiple regression method intended to establish the reservoir water intake forecast model. Only a few measurements were taken at first. The regressed model is as follows:Qt=1071 Pt + 1442 pt-1+ 942 pt-2 + 9235, in which is reservoir water intake; is amount of precipitation at time t; and were rainfall amounts at one and two hours before time t. This study used the gray forecast model to estimate the amount of rainfall. The results showed that the approaches were applicable to a reservoir having a small catchment area. The method of missing data addendum is in light of reference the reservoir operation.

並列關鍵字

precipitation ； amount of water intake ； multiple regression analysis ； grey theory

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