以生態理論探討資訊科技變革趨勢之研究

The Evolution Analysis of Information Technology Based on Ecological Theories

林思羽(Sz-Yu Lin)

指導教授 ： 陳灯能

國立屏東科技大學/管理學院/資訊管理系所/碩士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6346/NPUST.2010.00174

摘要

資訊科技的快速變革特性使其演進趨勢非常難以捉模，原本的主流科技，很可能在極短暫的時間內被另一種突然崛起的科技所取代，但也有歷久不衰的主流科技存在，儘管有許多的新科技出現，卻無法強烈影響該項科技的主流地位。本研究嘗試以生態學的DICE模型及中斷平衡模型（Punctuated Equilibrium Model）來分析及描述資訊科技的演化及趨勢，並探討能夠引起演化的因素。本研究以Intel的中央處理器(CPU)為例，蒐集十年間著名電腦雜誌PCDIY裡的Intel CPU資料，透過分析與探討CPU這個資訊科技產品，以生態學理論來找出CPU演化的脈絡及趨勢，藉此了解CPU的演化情形，並找出造成其改變的關鍵因素。最後並利用這些關鍵因素來分析現行警用行動電腦，藉以預測其未來的發展。

關鍵字

資訊科技演化 ； 中斷平衡模型 ； DICE模型

並列摘要

With the rapid change, the evolution of information technology (IT) is unpredictable. Some mainstream technologies might be taken over by another new technology shortly, but some can still survive under the thrusts of many new technologies. In this study, we apply the ecological theories, including the DICE model and punctuated equilibrium model, to analyze and describe the evolution trends of information technology. By collecting and analyzing the Intel CPU information with different models and specification from a famous magazine “PCDIY” in the past ten years, we hope to discover the evolution trends of CPU and find our the driving factors based on the ecological theories.Finally, we apply our research results to analyze the evolution of current police mobile computer and predict its future development.

並列關鍵字

IT Evolution ； Punctuated Equilibrium Model ； DICE Model

參考文獻

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