本研究以中國命理五行學說為主要概念,以五行「金、木、水、火、土」五種相生相剋的關係,搭配從古至今由天干地支規則所建立之五行流年建立五行生剋模型 (Five-Phases Allelopathy Model,FPAM)判斷報酬走向之驗證。本研究對象以臺灣股票市場作為次級資料之蒐集與研究對象,研究期間為2000至2012年,共計13年間。本研究從兩種角度視野進行五行生剋模型在臺灣股票市場的運用,分別為從產業五行本命對所處不同流年的情況下適合在哪些年進行投資與從不同的流年五行適合投資哪種何種本命五行之產業,其運用五行生剋模型進行驗證。研究結果顯示,以產業五行本命對不同流年之實證以公司本命「土」準確為最高,準確度達84.44%,而從不同的流年五行適合投資哪種何種本命五行之產業以高低報酬群組作排序分析,分析結果13年間有8年呈現高報酬群組之平均報酬高於低報酬群組之平均報酬,準確度達68%。以期許五行生剋模型在股票市場中可以協助投資人擊敗大盤,獲取超額報酬。
Based on the Five-Phases Allelopathy Theory of Chinese numerology, this paper establishes a stock selecting model. In this study, we use the theory of the Five-Phases of Chinese numerology as the main concept of the modeling establishment, of which the five elements gold, wood, water, fire, earth’s allelopathy relations as the main concept. We use all stocks’ monthly data in the Taiwan stock market as sampling data from 2000 to 2012, totally as 13 years. This study uses two steps to verify the use of the Five-Phases Allelopathy Theory in the Taiwan stock market. The results show that the company type is “earth” this group have highest accuracy of 84.44% in sampling period from a natal numerology. And from the view of appropriate of different natal industry group in sequencing years, eight of thirteen years match the Five-Phases Allelopathy Theory that the average return of the high-paid group is higher than the average return of the low-paid group, accuracy up to 68%.