台灣房地產指數與總體經濟因素之相關性研究

Correlation Between Macroeconomics Determinants and Housing Price Index in Taiwan

盧冠妤(Kuan-Yu Lu)

指導教授 ： 謝富順

國立臺中科技大學/商學院/財務金融研究所碩士班/碩士(2016年)

摘要

本研究運用Lee et al.(2012)不平等變異數檢定法來驗證總體經濟因素間對於房地產價格指數的變動關係。研究結果發現國內的國泰房地產指數與信義房地產指數對消費者購置住宅貸款餘額存在高度密切關係，且變動最為靠近。而貨幣供給率與國泰房價指數關係不像投資人想像的強大，反而消費者購置住宅貸款餘額與房地產指數的密切度大過於貨幣供給率與房地產指數密切度。

關鍵字

不平等變異數檢定法 ； 總體經濟 ； 房地產價格指數

並列摘要

In this study, researchers Lee et at(2012) unequal variance assay to verify the relationship between changes in general economic factors for the real estate price index. The results found that the domestic real estate index and Cathay Pacific Lutheran real estate and consumer purchase index close relationship balance of residential loans, and changes in the most close. The money supply rate and Cathay House Price Index Investor Relations not imagine the powerful, but the acquisition of the balance of consumer loans and residential real estate index closeness of the money supply rate is too large and the real estate index closeness.

並列關鍵字

The unequal variance tests ； Macroeconomics ； Housing Price Index

參考文獻

黃倧賦(2014)「總體經濟與台灣房地產價格之非線性研究」，淡江大學財務金融研究所碩士論文。

張嘉純(2010)「台灣房地產與房屋貸款之關聯性研究」，台灣大學社

Beltratti,A. and Morana,C.(2010),“International house prices and macroeconomic fluctuations” Journal of Banking and Finance 34,533–545

Blanco,J. and Restoy.(2006), “House Prices and Real Interest Rates in Spain” Banco de Espana Research Paper No. OP-0608

Chingnun,Shuen.S.and Chiao Yi Chang (2012), “How close a relationship does a capital market have with other such markets? The case of Taiwan from the Asian financial crisis”