経済連携協定締結が対日直接投資に及ぼす影響に関する研究-重力モデルによる検証-
(經濟夥伴協定對日本對内直接投資之影響研究-重力模型之驗證)

本論文之目的在於辨明對日本的直接投資之形態，並透過重力模型分析EPA簽訂對日本的直接投資所帶來之影響。就實證結果來看，高所得國家偏好進行垂直式對日直接投資，因此日本與高所得國家簽訂EPA，將會對日本的直接投資產生正面影響。另外，ASEAN各國具有水平式對日本直接投資的特徵，實證結果指出日本與ASEAN簽訂EPA並不會對日本的直接投資產生正面影響。至今為止，日本主要致力於與東南亞的發展中國家簽訂EPA，因此與其他主要先進國家相較，對日本的直接投資金額卻僅有微幅成長。日本雖然正與高所得國家簽訂EPA，然而有文獻顯示，高所得國家並不一定具有垂直式對日直接投資的特徵。若簽約國僅具有水平式對日直接投資特徵者，將有可能因為簽訂EPA之緣故，造成簽約國的對日出口增加，而導致對日直接投資金額減少。根據本文實證結果顯示，選擇與具有垂直式對日直接投資特徵的國家簽訂EPA，方才有助於增加對日直接投資金額。

關鍵字

EPA ；垂直式海外直接投資；水平式海外直接投資；重力模型；日本經濟

並列摘要

The purpose of this paper is to identify the pattern of inward FDI of Japan and to analyze the impact of EPA on it through a gravity model. According to the empirical results, high-income countries prefer vertical FDI to Japan; therefore, the signing EPA with high-income countries will have a positive impact on inward FDI of Japan. On the other hand, ASEAN countries have the characteristics of horizontal inward FDI to Japan, and the empirical results show that the EPA between Japan and ASEAN will not have a positive impact on inward FDI of Japan. Japan has mainly focused on signing EPAs with developing countries in Southeast Asia, so the amount of inward FDI of Japan has only increased slightly compared to other major advanced countries. Although Japan is signing EPAs with high-income countries, literature shows that high-income countries do not necessarily have the characteristics of vertical FDI to Japan. If the signatory countries only have the characteristics of horizontal FDI to Japan, it is possible that the EPA with high-income countries will lead to an increase in the exports of the signatory countries to Japan and a decrease in the amount of horizontal inward FDI of Japan. According to the empirical results of this paper, the selection of countries with vertical FDI characteristics will help to increase the amount of inward FDI of Japan.