應用總計市佔模式探討航空公司之競爭

Applying the aggregate market share model to investigate airlines’ competition

柯雅萍(Ya-Ping Ko)

指導教授 ： 楊志文

國立臺中科技大學/資訊與流通學院/流通管理系碩士班/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6826/NUTC.2015.00026

摘要

隨著全球化競爭趨勢及各國商務經貿往來頻繁，各機場與各航空公司之間存在著競合關係。因此，本研究主要透過機場對之航空公司競爭進行探討。實證對象為以桃園與松山機場為主要出發機場之東北亞黃金航圈航線，針對各機場對之航空公司乘載量與市佔率進行探討。本研究分別採用迴歸模式與多項羅吉特模式，建構各機場對下之航空公司總計市佔率模式，實證結果顯示航班數對市佔率之影響十分顯著，而大型起訖機場的航線型態具有較高的市佔率。在迴歸模式中的交互影響效果，包括特定目的地與航空公司下的上午航班比例，以及小機場下的準點率；而在個體選擇模式中，密集班機頻率型態正向影響市佔率，但單走道機型則為負向效果。最後，在模式驗證與預測的分析結果中，迴歸模式適合應用於旅次運量大之機場對航線的市佔率預測，但多項羅吉特模式在樣本不充足的前提下，則顯示出其市佔率預測的限制性。

關鍵字

機場對需求 ； 航空公司競爭 ； 迴歸分析 ； 多項羅吉特 ； 驗證與預測

並列摘要

With the globalization of commercial activity, the relationship among airports or airlines is existence of competition perspective. Hence, this study attempts to investigate the airlines’ competition for airport-pairs flight. The empirical study focused on two departure airports: Taoyuan airport and Songshan airport, which are composing of Northeast Asia Golden Aviation Circle. The major purpose is to predict the passenger demand and market share of airlines. The regression model and multinomial logit model were used to modeling the aggregate market share models of airlines for airport-pair flight. The empirical results reveal that the number of flights is the most significant factor and large O-D airport have a positive effect in the raising of market share. In the interactive effect of regression model, the percentage of morning flights is significant for specific destinations and airlines, while the on-time performance of flight is only concerned by Songshan airport. On the other hand, the results of multinomial logit model indicate that the type of frequent flight has positive influence on market share of airline, but the single-aisle aircraft is the negative factor. Finally, the results of validation and prediction show that regression model has more precisely prediction on the airlines’ market share, especially for those airport-pair flights with a large volume of passengers. However, the outcome of multinomial logit model reveals its limitation of modeling and prediction within the condition of sample deficiency.

並列關鍵字

Airport-pairs demand ； Airlines’ competition ； Regression analysis ； Multinomial Logit ； Validation and prediction

參考文獻

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