房地合一稅制對我國房價之影響

近年來，臺灣存有高房價、高空屋率、高自有率等重大問題，因此政府為解決以上問題，在保障民眾自住權益原則下，進行稅制修法，於2016年1月1日實施房地合一實價課稅制度，並針對短期交易、炒作不動產者課以重稅，改正住宅市場亂投機現象，使房價趨向合理水準，並促進國內不動產稅制公平合理化，落實居住正義的目的。而房地合一稅制實施至今已2年，為了解新制是否有抑制房價的效果，達到政府實施新稅的目的：1.遏制短期炒作2.讓高漲的房價下降，使房地產市場慢慢趨於穩定，進一步保障民眾自住權益。故本研究採用2014年至2017年國泰指數（REP）作為被解釋變數，在解釋變數上以經濟變數為主，包括消費者物價指數（CPI）、國內生產毛額（GDP）、貨幣供給額（M2）、核發建造執照總樓地板面積（PE）、股價指數（Stock）等變數，由於本研究的目的為探討實施房地合一稅對我國房價的影響，因此設立房地合一虛擬變數（Dt），將研究期間區分為兩個區段：實施房地合一稅制前2014年1月至2015年12月及實施房地合一稅制後2016年1月至2017年12月，另外，本研究地區有全國、臺北市、新北市、桃竹地區、臺中市、臺南市、高雄市共七個地區，每一地區樣本數共有48個，而本研究方法採用最小平方法（OLS）進行實證研究。本研究結果顯示，以台灣整體房價而言，房地合一稅制的實施確實有使整體房價略為下降；而以地方地區而言，也皆有抑制效果，只是對於每個地區的成效不同，其中，房地合一稅制有使臺北市、新北市、臺南市房價略微下降，但僅使桃竹地區、臺中市、高雄市的房價漲幅趨緩，然而就兩年實施成果而言，目前看起來是有達到讓短線投機者不易炒作的成效，但希望此結果並非曇花一現，冀望未來，此政策能讓臺灣房價所得比下降至正常範圍，使市場能夠回歸到自住與投資的正常需求。

關鍵字

房地合一稅；最小平方法；房價

並列摘要

Housing problem such as high housing prices, high vacancy rate, and high homeownership rates is severely increased in Taiwan recently. In order to solve the living problems, Taiwan government amend the tax law and legislate "The Integrated Housing and Land Taxation" on January 1, 2016. The new taxation imposes the heavy tax on the short-swing trader and flipping real estate holder for reducing property speculation, making housing prices tend to the reasonable price level, promoting domestic fairness in the real estate tax system, and finally defending the living justice. Based on the ordinary least squares, this study conduct an empirical model in which the 2014-2017 Cathay Real Estate Indexes are dependent variables, The main variables in independent variables are economic variables, including Consumer Price Index （CPI）, Gross Domestic Product （GDP）, Money Supply （M2）, Issuance of Construction Licensed Floor Area （PE）, Stock Price Index （Stock）, etc. variable. As the purpose of this study is to explore the effect of the impact of integrated housing and land taxation on domestic housing prices, the integrated housing and land taxation were set as a dummy variable. This study period was divided into two phases, namely pre-implementation from January 2014 to December 2015 and after implementation of the policy from January 2016 to December 2017. In addition, there are seven research regions in Taiwan, Taipei, New Taipei City, Taoyuan and Hsinchu City, Taichung City, Tainan City and Kaohsiung City. There are 48 samples in each region. According to the empirical results that the implementation of Integrated Housing and Land Taxation has caused the overall housing price to decline slightly in Taiwan overall house prices and has the inhibitory effect on local house prices. However, the effectiveness of each district is different. Among them, the Integrated Housing and Land Taxation has led to a slight decrease in housing prices in Taipei, New Taipei City, and Tainan, but in Taoyuan and Hsinchu City, Taichung City, and Kaohsiung City, the effect is limited, only slow down the upward trend. However, as far as the two-year implementation results are concerned, it appears that there are achievements that make short-swing trader less likely to the hype, but we hope that this result will not be a flash in the pan. Looking ahead, this policy will allow Taiwan’s house price ratio to fall to the normal range, enabling the market to Return to normal demand for home ownership and investment.