影響地方不動產稅收因素之研究

地方財政良窳，攸關地方政府施政績效能否展現，而地方不動產稅收乃地方財政收入主要來源之一，亦為財政得否健全之關鍵。本研究以臺灣地區19縣市2001年至2018年的追蹤資料，藉由最小平方法與分量迴歸進行實證分析比較。研究結果顯示，首先，以整體經濟因素角度觀察，在傳統迴歸分析，貨幣供給M2、營造工程物價指數、五大行庫放款利率及平均每人GDP僅對土地增值稅有顯著負向及正向水準，而五大行庫購屋貸款利率則係對房屋稅及土地增值稅有顯著正向影響，而分量迴歸分析的實證結果，平均每人GDP及五大行庫購屋貸款利率對土地增值稅收入呈現顯著正向影響；貨幣供給M2及五大行庫放款利率則對土地增值稅有顯著負向關聯。再者，就各縣市區域特性而言，在傳統迴歸分析，建物移轉登記棟數、戶籍登記人口及營利事業家數對不動產稅收呈現顯著正向水準，而都市計畫現況人口數則為負向影響。另分量迴歸分析的實證結果，建物移轉登記棟數對不動產持有稅在低分量至中分量較具顯著正向關係；社會增加率對房屋稅在中分量有顯著正向影響，對地價稅收入在低分量較具顯著性影響；都市計劃現況人口數，對房屋稅及契稅在低分量至中分量呈現顯著負向關係，對土地增值稅則在各分量均為顯著負向影響；營利事業家數，除對契稅收入在最高分量無顯著影響外，其餘稅目及各分量均為顯著正向關係。最後不動產稅基政策部分，在傳統迴歸分析，公告地價調整比率對地價稅呈現顯著正相關；公告土地現值調整比率對土地增值稅有顯著正向影響，而對地價稅則為負向關係。另分量迴歸法結果顯示，公告地價調整比率對地價稅在低分量及最高分量有顯著正向關係；公告土地現值調整比率對土地增值稅在各分量均為顯著正向水準；房屋標準單價調整對房屋稅僅在最低分量呈現顯著正向關係。

關鍵字

不動產稅收；分量迴歸；追蹤資料

並列摘要

This paper empirically investigates the factors affecting local real estate tax by using 19 municipalities in Taiwan. We examine the determinants of the local real estate tax with panel data over the period from 2001 to 2011. In many cases, quantile regression estimates are quite different from those from OLS regressions. The main findings from OLS model support the negative impact of money supply, construction cost index and loans interest rates by 5 leading banks on the land value increment tax, while GDP per capita has a positive impact. And the interest rates by 5 leading banks in house purchasing loans rate has a positive impact on both the house tax and the land value increment tax. However, the quantile results the positive impact of GDP per capita and the interest rates by 5 leading banks in house purchasing loans rate on the land value increment tax, while money supply and xxx have negative impact. Furthermore, among the regional characteristic, registration number of transfer in building ownership, household registration demographic and the number of business units have positive impact on the local real estate tax, while present population in urban planning district has negative impact by using OLS model. However, the quantile regression estimates were not significant in the upper tail of real estate holding tax of registration number of transfer in building ownership, but social increase rate has positive significantly impact for middle quantiles of the conditional distribution of house tax and for low quantiles of the conditional distribution of land value tax. And present population in urban planning district has negative impact on the low and middle of the conditional quantile of the house tax and deed tax. Finally, in Real estate tax base, quantile regression estimates are quite different from those from OLS regressions. The results of this study suggest that some policies of local real estate may be reconsidered, especially among the announced land values adjustment ratio, current land value adjustment ratio and the standard unit housing price adjustment ratio.