房屋價格對生育率之影響：來自OECD國家的證據

隨著時代的演進，近二百年經濟逐漸趨於安定，雖然人口以指數型態增加，但全球的總生育率卻是逐年下降中，許多國家都已進入超低生育率的階段。房屋價格是養兒育女的影子價格，多數人在累積財富會購置房地產，但在土地有限的情況下，房地產的價格隨著購置人口的需求而增漲，買房成家對新一代的年輕人來說似乎成為遙不可及的夢想。然而，高房價會是影響生育率的關鍵因素嗎? 本文將少子化與高房價兩個議題進行研究，並利用23個OECD國家2000-2019年的資料，以總生育率作為被解釋變數，實質房屋價格指數、女性勞動參與率、國民淨收入、失業率與女性高等教育為解釋變數，本研究先以傳統迴歸法進行分析，但發現其中有些變數無法完成的呈現與總生育率之關係，因此更進一步採用分量迴歸法驗證房屋價格對於總生育率的影響。

關鍵字

房屋價格；總生育率；分量迴歸法

並列摘要

Abstract Over the period 2000-2019, this project investigates the relationship between low fertility and high house prices in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. While the global total fertility rate (TFR) is decreasing, housing prices are rising. Will high housing prices make a family feel burdened and unwilling to have children? This study employed Quantile Regression, with the goal of determining whether the burden of high housing prices affects fertility. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables on fertility, such as labor market, education, income, and housing preference, are approached from various perspectives. Housing prices, on the other hand, are a cost of fertility for households, but there is less literature on the effect of housing prices on fertility. As a result, we try to concentrate our research on OECD countries where data is more readily available and comprehensive. According to the empirical findings, high real housing costs in high-fertility nations promote fertility drops, while high real housing prices in low-fertility countries generate fertility rises.