營利事業進項來源廠商申報擴大書審與逃漏稅捐之研究

A Study of Profit Business Income Sourcing Companies between Enlargement Written Examination Declaration and Tax Evasion

戴淑英(Shu-Ying Tai)

指導教授 ： 謝俊宏

國立臺中科技大學/商管學群/事業經營研究所/碩士(2010年)

摘要

本文目的在建構一區別逃漏營利事業所得稅之預測模式，鑑於此，研究資料以財政部臺灣省中區國稅局臺中市分局96年度營利事業所得稅結算申報營業收入總額超過七千萬元以上案件，以該等營利事業所取得進項憑證來源之廠商為以申報擴大書審方式者所開立之銷貨發票作為進項憑證之案件，應用邏吉斯迴歸分析及區別分析模式對於可能逃漏稅之顯著因子進行分析，探討營利事業取得是類進項來源廠商開立之憑證，據以列報成本或費用，對營利事業是否短漏報所得額逃漏營利事業所得稅之預測能力如何，進一步判斷其準確度。
實證結果顯示，逃漏稅分類正確率Logistic迴歸分析模式可達95.4％、區別分析模式可達89.4％，預測準確率相當高；另外發現毛利率、存貨占營收比率、進項來源廠商申報擴大書審之家數及該等進項來源廠商所開立發票金額占企業申報全部進項金額之比率等四項變數為影響逃漏營利事業所得稅之顯著因子。本文所建構之模式可協助稽徵機關對於具有上述顯著因子之案件列為選案參考，並優先進行查核，不僅可提高選查的效率，且對查核人力、時間及績效等均有助益。

關鍵字

營利事業所得稅 ； 書面審核 ； 逃漏稅 ； Logistic迴歸 ； 區別分析

並列摘要

The purpose of this study is to construct the prediction model for discriminating the corporate profit tax evasion. In view of this, the research data were based on the cases of corporate profit tax accounting declaration of sales income amount over NTD 70 millions in the Taichung city branch of National Tax Administration of Central Taiwan Province, Ministry of Finance in 2007, and use these cases to process income certificate samples of sales check that issue from profit business income sourcing companies of enlargement written examination declaration. Using logistic regression model and discriminant analysis model to analyze the significant factors of possible tax evasion and discuss profit business acquirement is income sourcing company issued documentations for applying cost and expense. About the prediction abilities of corporate profit tax of profit business’ tax evasion, it will judge its accuracy in advanced.
As the empirical results showed, the prediction accuracy rate is very high that tax evasion correct classify rate is reached 95.4% by logistic regression model and disciminant analysis model is reached 89.4%. Furthermore, there are four variable items of gross profit margin, inventory of sales income rate, the quantities of income sourcing companies’ enlargement written examination declaration and corporate income rate of income sourcing companies issued invoice account that they will impact corporate profit tax evasion as significant factor. The established prediction model of this study will help National Tax Administration to build the referred cases selections as above significant factors and process related priority audit. Thus, it will enhance the cases selection of tax evasion effectively and bring more benefits of audit manpower, time and performance.

並列關鍵字

Corporate Profit Tax ； Written Examination ； Tax Evasion ； Logistic Regression Model ； Discriminant Analysis Model

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