蘋果公司新產品宣告效果之實證研究

The New Product Announcement Effect in Apple Inc.

吳克遜(Ko-Hsun Wu)

指導教授 ： 戴錦周

國立臺中科技大學/商學院/企業管理系事業經營碩士班/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6826/NUTC.2013.00109

摘要

本研究遂以宣告日為事件日，利用事件研究法探討Apple Inc.新產品宣告進行相關供應商股價之異常報酬分析，並檢視公司變數，對異常報酬的影響。

實證結果發現，Apple供應商的公司異常平均累積報酬率較Non-Apple供應商表現來的優，且宣告日前三個月的累積平均異常報酬率最佳。若是宣告日當日後進入市場，之後得到的累積平均異常報酬率為負值。此外宣告事件日Apple供應商有正向異常報酬，反應新產品宣告效果。

在產業分類實證上，在宣告前三個月或二個月持有Apple供應商光電I/O產業、主機板產業及電子零組件產業的證劵，會有正向且顯著的累積異常報酬。另依產業上中下游實證結論，Apple供應商在宣告前三個月，Non-Apple供應商則在宣告前二個月，上游產業亦有顯著的累積平均異常報酬，但不論Apple供應商與否，中下游產業並無顯著累積平均異常報酬。

由迴歸分析結果也證實，產品宣告效果會隨著成長性、研究發展率以及負債比率的增加而減少，Apple公司與否、每股盈餘、應收帳款週轉率對宣告效果為正相關。

總體結論為建議投資人投資標的，首先需與新產品宣告品牌相關，且於宣告前前二至三個月開始佈局，並以每股盈餘過濾出上游電子零配件產業為主的供應商，將會達到最佳的投資效果。

關鍵字

事件研究法 ； 新產品宣告 ； 異常報酬率

並列摘要

This study uses the event study methodology to investigate the abnormal returns of Apple Inc. suppliers in Taiwan. Then reviews the variables influence on abnormal returns. The event dates are the product announcements of the Apple Inc. iPad series from 2010 to 2012.

The result of empirical research support that the better Cumulative Abnormal Average Return (CAAR) occur before declared three months ago and the Apple Inc. suppliers are excellent than Non-Apple Inc. suppliers. It will have negative CAAR after announcement dates. Apple Inc. suppliers also have positive abnormal returns on new product announcement dates to show New Product Announcement Effect.

In different industries analysis, The CAAR are positive and significant before two or three months from event dates when invests in Optoelectronic industry, Motherboard industry and Electronic Component industry for Apple Inc. suppliers. Besides, upstream firms have a same result before three months from announcement dates. For Non-Apple Inc. suppliers, it will be similarly happened before two months. But no matter Apple Inc. suppliers or not, the CAAR are not significant in downstream and midstream firms.

In addition, regression empirical results also support to that New Product Announcement Effect will decrease gradually by Debt ratio, R&D/Sales ratio and growth index (Tobin’s Q). But there are positive reactions with Earnings Per Share, Account Receivable Turnover ratio and whether Apple Inc. or not.

The overall conclusion will suggest investors to invest in related companies with new product announcement. And investors should arrange portfolio before two or three months from the announcement dates of new product series. It will have the optimum when invest in upstream firms which supply electronic components are considered with Earnings Per Share.

並列關鍵字

Event Study ； New Produce Announcement ； Abnormal Return

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