有關國際風險和經濟成長之間的關係,在過去文獻已有廣泛的研究成果,因此,本文將探討國家金融開放指標、總體經濟面(如消費者物價指數、失業率),以及金融發展程度(如國家股票市場的市值、主要的股價指數)對於經濟成長風險(Economic Growth Risk)的影響,且加入虛擬變數來分析金融危機前後,國家金融市場發展與經濟成長風險的相互關係。本文樣本對象為已開發國家,分別為澳洲、奧地利、加拿大、丹麥、芬蘭、法國、德國、義大利、日本、西班牙、瑞典、台灣、英國、美國等14國國家,樣本期間取自1993年至2012年之季資料,以追蹤資料(Panel Data)型態進行實證分析,實證結果發現國家金融開放指標對經濟成長風險是呈現正相關;總體經濟、金融發展程度對經濟成長風險皆呈現負相關,最後,我們發現金融危機對於經濟成長風險會有顯著的效果,其中在金融開放指標最為明顯。
This study explores the relation between the risk of economic growth and financial openness. We employ the economic growth risk to measure the risk of economic growth, and examine the impacts of financial openness, macroeconomic (i.e. consumer consumption index, unemployment rate), and financial development on the economic growth risk to analyze the risk of economic growth of developed countries. We use the quarterly data from 14 developed countries and the sample periods covered from 1993 to 2012. The empirical results indicate that the effect of financial openness on the risk of economic growth is positive and the effects of financial development and macroeconomic are both negative. Moreover, we examine the influence of financial crisis on the risk of economic growth and find that the financial crisis significant affects the risk of economic growth.