政府打炒房的租稅與行政措施對於臺灣營建類股股價的影響-以事件研究法分析

本研究主要探討政府發布打炒房的租稅與行政之政策措施對於臺灣營建類股股價的影響，採用事件研究法(TEJ事件研究系統)之市場指數調整模型(Market Adjusted Returns model)，針對臺灣上市櫃營建業類股公司作為研究對象，實證分析2020年底至2021年底政府動員跨部門大力度打炒房三大政策(實價登錄2.0、房地合一2.0及選擇性信用管制)行政措施發布前後之上市櫃營建業類股公司股價之影響，並採用符號檢定法 (Sign test)，測試政策事件日前後營建業股票漲跌幅度是否顯著，政府發布打炒房的租稅與行政之政策措施對於營建業股股價有直接顯著的影響。依政策行政措施發布事件的時間順序，實證分析發現，初期打炒房措施(2020/12/21-2021/3/11)，事件日當天皆有負向的顯著，中期打炒房措施(2021/3/19-6/11)市場投資者確定政府打炒房決心，在事件還沒發生前即已產生負向效應，後續兩個行政措施(2021/6/30-12/16)，投資大眾已接受政府打炒房政策趨勢，負向效應較趨平緩反應，但負向顯著性持續較長之現象。另依實施政策構面分析，財政部所得稅法修訂(房地合一2.0)其負向情況最大且顯著性較多，其次為內政部實價登錄2.0，最後是央行第3波選擇性信用管制。稅賦制度對投資人炒房交易之衝擊最大，影響投資人獲利的空間，利用炒房獲利大幅度地縮水而降低投資炒房交易之意願，使房市趨於正常化。而實價登錄2.0制度使房地產資訊公開透明化，及信用管制使投資者利用融資套利機會減少。政府政策將影響投資者交易行為，產生房地產市場供給與需求之改變，本研究結果將可提供政府後續制定炒房政策措施之參考。

關鍵字

事件研究法；打炒房；選擇性信用管制；房地合一；實價登錄；營建股

並列摘要

This study mainly explores the impact of the government's tax and policies on real estate speculation on the stock prices of Taiwan's construction stocks. Using the Market Adjusted Returns model of the event research method (TEJ Event Research System), and taking Taiwan listed construction companies’ stock as the research target, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of the three major real estate speculation policies of government (Actual price registration 2.0, Integrated Housing and Land Tax 2.0 and Selective credit control), from the end of 2020 to the end of 2021, on the stock prices of listed construction companies. Using the Sign test method, to test whether the rise and fall of the construction industry stock prices is significant before and after the implementation of the policy. The government's tax and policies measures on real estate speculation has a direct and significant impact on the construction industry stock prices. According to the chronological order in which the policy and administrative measures were published, empirical analysis found that the initial real estate speculation measures (2020/12/21-2021/3/11) had a significant negative trend on the day it was published. In the mid-term real estate speculation measures (2021/3/19-2021/6/11), market investors have confirmed that the government is determined to control real estate speculation, and the negative effect has already occurred before the incident. In the following two administrative measures (2021/6/30-2021/12/16), the investors have accepted the trend of the government's policy on real estate speculation, and the negative effect is relatively flat, but the negative significance persists for a long time. In addition, according to the dimensional analysis of the implemented measures. the revision of the Income Tax Law (Integrated Housing and Land Tax 2.0) has a larger and more significant negative reaction, followed by Actual Price Registration 2.0, and finally the third wave of Selective Credit Control by the Central Bank. The tax system has the greatest impact on investors' real estate transactions, affecting the amount of profits made by investors. The substantial shrinkage of real estate profits reduces the willingness to invest in real estate and normalizes the real estate market tends. The Actual Price Registration 2.0 makes real estate information open and transparent, and Selective Credit Control reduces the opportunities to take advantage of financing arbitrage. Government policies will affect investors' transaction behavior, resulting in changes in the supply and demand of the real estate market. The results of this study can be a reference for the government to formulate policies and measures for subsequent real estate speculation.

並列關鍵字

Event Study ； Real Estate Speculation Policy ； Selective Credit Control ； Integrated Housing and Land Tax Policy ； Actual Value Registration ； Construction Stocks