- 學位論文
現金減資與股價相關之探討
The Study of the Relationship between Stock Prices and Cash-refunding Capital Reduction
摘要
國內現金減資始於2002年晶華酒店，其成功案例，一掃減資帶給人的負面印象，成為一時話題。本研究主要探討現金減資宣告後股價反應，研究範圍從2002年1月1號至2013年12月31號，總樣本數量為84件。 過往眾多研究指出現金減資對股價有正向宣告效果，其研究數據大多採用整體減資公司之股價累積異常報酬率；但對於公司基本面與宣告後股價漲跌幅關係著墨較少。投資人是否可以僅憑減資事件作為選股依據？期望能在實務上作為引導投資人做決策的參考，本研究詳述現金減資流程和案例實證，並分別從減資比率、每股盈餘、公司股本、公司市值、股價與減資年份等六大面向探討其與持股報酬率之關係，期待能找到上漲股票的潛在通則。 實證結果發現，僅有公告日後第一個交易日現金減資比例與股價反應呈現正相關。且近年來現金減資宣告對股價之正向影響已不如從前。此外前季財報獲利公司相對於虧損公司，其持股報酬率差異均達顯著水準；其餘研究變項與持股報酬率幾乎均未達顯著水準。
並列摘要
The first successful story of domestic corporation with a cash-refunding capital reduction came from Regent Taipei in 2002. The story also dissolved the negative impression of capital reduction and became a hot topic in the stock market at that time. This study mainly explores the share price fluctuations after declaration of such cash-refunding capital reduction. The time range of the research was from January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2013. The number of samples used herein was 84. Many previous studies showed that the share prices of cash-refunding capital reduction had a declarative effect of positive announcement. Among those studies, most of the research data adopted the cumulative abnormal return of share prices in companies under overall capital reduction; however, the relationship between fundamentals of companies and share prices after declaration was rarely mentioned. Can investors pick stocks only on the basis of capital reduction issuances? As a reference, we hope to lead investors to make decisions in practice. In this study, the cash-refunding capital reduction process and real cases are described in details, including the relationship between the rate of return of stocks and six aspects, which are respectively from capital reduction ratio, earnings per share, capital stock of the company, the company's market value, the share prices and the year of cash-refunding capital reduction, hoping to find out the potential general rules of rising stocks. The results of this study show that the ratio of cash-refunding capital reduction and the reactions of share prices have presented positive correlations only on the first trading day after declaration but not afterward. The positive influence of the announcement of cash-refunding capital reduction on stock prices had diminished over these years. Besides, according to the previous quarterly financial report, the differences of share return of profitable companies, compared to those loss-making ones, reach a significant difference in the rate of remuneration levels, while the rest variables of the study and share return don’t.