整合實獲值管理於採購專案績效之研究

An Integrated of Earned Value Management on Performance of Purchasing Project

姚舜淵(Shun-Yuan Yao)

指導教授 ： 魏乃捷

共同指導教授 ： 薄喬萍(Chiao-Pin Bao)

義守大學/管理學院/工業管理學系/博士(2019年)

摘要

專案管理(Project Management，PM)最重要的三項管理目標「時程、效能、成本」，一個成功的專案涉及到專案管理十大知識領域及五大流程，專案執行時需做好全面性的監控，才可以真正落實專案管理的目標。然而，通常專案小組會用百分比的方式回報專案經理任務完成的進度，由於專案任務性質不同，定義任務完工的百分比的方式也不同，所以專案經理很難依據百分比來掌控每一專案任務的實際進度狀況，因此利用實獲值方式把所有專案工期及進度都轉化為“金額”，再與初期計畫預算金額做比較，來表示專案任務實際進度。
實獲值管理(Earned Value Management，EVM)雖然可以提供整合評估時程績效及成本績效衡量的一種指標，但是在實用上仍然存在著幾個缺點例如：(1)會增加管理成本(2)實獲值無法提供預測採購專案的成功或失敗(3)評估的指標無法分辨其重要程度。針對上述缺點部分，本研究提出了整合性實獲值管理觀點，可以預先評估採購專案成功的機率以及影響評估變項的重要程度排序。
為了驗證本研究整合實獲值管理的模式，先以實獲值管理方法導入於企業專案採購評估原物料第二商源，探討其專案時程進度是否超前或落後，以及專案預算執行超支或符合預算並建立對策。接著再利用羅吉斯迴歸分析(Logistic Regression Analysis)建立預測模型；並配合專家權重法(Expert Weighting Method)，選擇分析影響專案採購評估五項變項之重要度排序。研究結論發現變項中成本績效指標(Cost Performance Index，CPI)影響預測成功的機率極大，在執行材料第二商源評估單獨考慮CPI=1時，其預測成功的機率高達71.26%。影響評估變項之重要度以CPI為重要程度最高，表示在材料第二商源評估時，採購專家比較重視成本績效指標，結果可作為未來提升採購專案績效相關工作之推動。

關鍵字

專案管理 ； 實獲值管理 ； 羅吉斯迴歸分析 ； 專家權重法

並列摘要

There are three important management objectives of Project Management: Schedule, Performance and Cost. The success of a project involves ten knowledge Areas and five process groups, when the project is executed, comprehensive monitoring is required to truly implement the project management objectives. However, project team will report the progress of task completion to project manager in percentage way. Because of the different property of the project task, the percentage of the completion of the task is defined in different ways. Therefore, it is difficult for the project manager to control the actual progress of each project task based on the percentage. As a result, all project of schedules and progress are converted to “amounts” using the Earned Value Management (EVM). Compare with the initial budget amount to mean the actual progress of the project task.
The EVM can provide an indicator for integrating assessment of schedule performance and cost performance index. But there are still several defects in practicality, such as: (1) will increase management costs. (2) The Earned Value does not provide a forecast of the success or failure for the procurement project. (3) The assessment of index cannot distinguish importance. To handle these defects, the research proposed an integrated EVM perspective which can predict the success rate of procurement projects and rank the importance of the evaluation variables.
In order to verify the model of integrated EVM in this study. Introduced by the EVM to evaluation second source of raw materials into the enterprise project procurement. Exploring whether the project schedule is ahead or behind and the project budget is overrun or meets the budget and establishes countermeasures. Then it can use the Logistic Regression Analysis to build a prediction model. With the Expert Weighting Method (EWM), select and analyze the importance ranking of the five variables affecting the project procurement evaluation. The conclusion of this study that the Cost Performance Index "CPI" in the variable affect the probability of successful forecast greatly. When CPI=1 is considered separately in the material second source of evaluation of the implementation. The probability of predicting success is as high as 71.26%. The importance of impact assessment variables is most important with CPI. Purchasing experts pay more attention to CPI in the second source of material assessment. The results can be used as a catalyst for future work related to improving the performance of procurement projects.

並列關鍵字

Project Management ； Earned Value Management ； Logistic Regression ； Expert Weighting Method

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