搜尋量指數對赴美上市的中國企業股價之影響

The Impact of Search Volume Indexs on Stock Return of China Firms Listed on United States

洪鎮宇(Jhen-Yu Hung)

指導教授 ： 李建興 ； 晏揚清

義守大學/管理學院/財務金融學系/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6343/ISU.2015.00100

摘要

過去許多文獻以搜尋量指數作為投資人關注程度的代理變數，並探討，單
一搜尋引擎之搜尋量對單一股票市場之股價的影響，本研究應用兩大經濟體美國與中國大陸世界之市占率最高的搜尋引擎即Google 和百度作為搜尋量資料，探討2011 年至2014 年期間赴美上市中國公司的Google Trend 指數對於高低百度搜尋量的公司股價報酬之影響，並進一步探討上述影響效果是否受到市場狀態而有所不同。
實證結果發現 Google Trend 指數增加，對於低百度搜尋量的公司股價報酬具有正向影響。且低百度搜尋量的上市企業，其Google Trend 指數的投資人注意力效果，高於高百度搜尋量的上市企業。曾將考量市場狀態方面發現在下降市場狀態時期，Google Trend 指數對低百度搜尋量的公司股價報酬之正向影響程度，高於上升市場狀態時期。過去文獻認為搜尋量可以提前預測公司營收狀況，本研究期望藉由百度搜尋量的提前預測公司營收狀況，可在公司公布營收之前提前掌握公司經營狀況，並經由Google 指數作為選股指標，使投資可以穩定獲利與降低損失風險。經由本文研究發現投資人確實可以百度搜尋量作為赴美上市公司營收之預測效果。

關鍵字

Google 網路關鍵字搜尋量 ； 百度指數 ； 中國企業赴美上市

並列摘要

In a number of literatures, investors’ attention over stock market was examined using search volume index as a proxy variable, and the influence on a single stock
market’s share prices imposed by a single search engine’ search volume was analyzed accordingly. For further research, this study has examined the data related
to search volume using United States’ search engine Google and China’s search engine Baidu, both having the largest market shares in the world, and attempted to identify the influence on the stock return of China firms listed in USA stock market between 2011 and 2014 with high and low Baidu search volume imposed by China firms’ Google Trend index in order to find out if the influence stated above
fluctuated as market situation changed.
According to empirical results, the rising Google Trend index positively affects the stock return of companies with low Baidu search volume. Secondly, the listed companies having low Baidu search volume are more attractive to investors than the listed companies having high Baidu search volume in terms of drawing
investors’ attention with their Google Trend indexes. Moreover, this study examined the companies having low Baidu search volume and found that the positive influence on those companies’ stock return is higher when the market is declining while the influence is lower when the market is rising. Literatures stated that investors could check search volume and forecast the revenue of companies in advance. This study attempted to forecast the companies’
revenue beforehand using Baidu search volume in order to find out the companies’ state of operation before their revenues are announced. Most importantly, investors
may use Google index as choose the target of stocks to ensure their steady profits and to minimize their loss.

並列關鍵字

Search Volume Index ； Investor attention ； Google Trend Index ； Baidu index ； China firms listed in USA stock market

參考文獻

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