Analysis and Forecast of Building Business strategies Rice Vinh Long Import - Export Joint Stock Company period 2014 - 2020

Analysis and Forecast of Building Business strategies Rice Vinh Long Import - Export Joint Stock Company period 2014 - 2020

Nguyen Kien Nghiep(Nguyen Kien Nghiep)

指導教授 ： 陳俊益

共同指導教授 ： Ho Sy Tan(Ho Sy Tan)

義守大學/管理學院/企業管理學系/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6343/ISU.2014.00239

摘要

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關鍵字

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並列摘要

When Vietnam became a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2007, many countries and regions all over the world have to import goods from Vietnam mainly of rice. In the trend of globalization, businesses must integrate into the world economy with very fierce competition and many great challenges in operating their business.Therefore, businesses must constantly strive to change to suit the growing trend to affirm his reputation on the domestic market and international.
It is the leading exporter of the province Vinh Long Import - Export Joint Stock Company (IMEX CUU LONG), it is the state-owned enterprises (51% of the state capital) under the People's Committee of Vinh Long Province, specializes in buying sale of food, agricultural raw materials, semi-processed agricultural products (plates, bran); husking rice, polished rice and export agents, export trustee for other companies needs. Since its inception it has played a big part in the economic development of the local society and the business is certified as eligible enterprises engaged in export of rice under Decree 109 government. Therefore, it is necessary to study and recommend solutions to build forecasting strategies rice export business more effectively in the future.This is reasons that I decided to study "Analysis and forecast of building business strategies rice Vinh Long Import - Export Joint Stock Company Period 2014 -2020".
Research methods began collecting data (secondary) Vietnam's rice exports and company about types, rice exports turnover from 2008 to 2013. Then conducted data analysis (secondary):
-Using method of comparing the relative, absolute for comparison, compare types and rice exports company over the years.
- Using the rate histograms showing the structure of exported rice varieties through the years
- Analysis of the current situation clearly assess Vietnam's rice exports in the current period
- Provide orientation perspective SWOT: strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of company
Application of Grey theory models and we proposed Nonlinear Grey Bernoulli Model (NGBM) to Improve the linear model to nonlinear one. The NGBM be applied to forecast rice exports for next year.
After analysis we found GM (1,1) with 5 data, n = 0 has Average Relative Percentage Error (%) is 1.41% and NGBM data with n = 5 data, n= - 0.18 average relative error (%) 0.64% is optimal and we use the GM (1,1) to forecast rice production for export next year.Obtained results will be useful for planning the marketing strategy of company in the future.

並列關鍵字

Grey system theory ； nonlinear grey Bernoulli model ； GM(1,1) ； rice forecasting

參考文獻

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