運用數據分析與創新矩陣圖改善產品之長鞭效應: 以車用防撞鋼樑為例

汽車產業以追求高效率即時生產(Just In Time簡稱:JIT)為基礎，對於供應鏈的管理及品質要求與一般傳統製造業相比尤為更勝一籌，車用防撞鋼樑取材自鋼鐵原料用於汽車產品中對人身安全的第一道防護牆，故在產品生產要求上有許多取材限制及生產規範，無法隨意取代、更動，因此庫存的管控對企業而言最直接相關連結的就是『資金』。車用防撞鋼樑以鋼鐵原料為基礎，以台灣而言，原料面以賣方巿場為主，無論是訂購量、單價、交期都是由賣方決定；而成品面買方巿場以看板即時交貨(Just In Time簡稱:JIT)為基準，其交貨方式、批量亦由客戶看板決定，上游以推式經濟規模生產，下游以拉式需求拉貨，上、下游的需求目標背道而馳，在管理上本身就有著強烈的衝突，加上供應鏈資訊平台中大多各自為政，並沒有建立整合性的資訊平台，因此中間商(F.L公司)對需求的變動掌握度很低，衍生出庫存失準、資金積壓的狀況，造成長鞭效應的發生。本論文主要以改善中間商，車用防撞鋼樑產品之長鞭效應研究除了搜集產品的產銷數據做分析外，對於產品長鞭效應成因運用六合分析法針對現況問題整理，運用創新矩陣圖的思維，找出已發現的問題並導入矩陣圖尋求破解缺口，改善後將原料前置時間導致的交期延誤由30天改善至4天(交期達成率由75%提昇至99%)，以及批量訂購限制由100噸(項)減少至20噸(項)，再由情境模擬方式，模擬個案N廠汽車公司將其預示需求提供的方式做修正，由不定期改為每月定期提供，預示量數字的參考由年度銷售目標，改為結合巿場實績數字配合巿場預測，來調節生產原料的佔庫比例，由平均13%下降至0.4%，改善目前中間製造商所面臨下游需求訊號不明確、上游原料前置交期冗長、批量訂購限制造成庫存壓力增加等長鞭效應。關鍵字：供應鏈管理、長鞭效應、六何分析法、創新矩陣圖

關鍵字

供應鏈管理；長鞭效應；六何分析法；創新矩陣圖

並列摘要

The automotive industry is based on the pursuit of high-efficiency produc-tion (Just in Time). The supply chain management and quality assurance of the automotive industry is much stricter than those of the traditional manufacturing industries. The Vehicle Crashworthiness beam is made of steel, and it’s the first protection for personal safety. Therefore, there are many restrictions and speci-fications in the production, which cannot be replaced or changed as one pleases. Because of that, there is a strong connection between inventory control and costs. The vehicle Crashworthiness beam is made of steel. In the steel industry of Taiwan, it is the seller’s market which means the supplier has more bargaining powers in control of order quantity, selling price, and lead time. In the steel in-dustry, the supplier pursues the economy of large scale production to reduce the cost. That is why they set a Minimum Order Quantity (MOQ), especially for automobile’s special steel. On the other hand, the automotive customer asks its suppliers to deliver their products just in time (JIT), and the customer also decides the quantity of each shipment. There is a strong conflict in management of middleman between the upstream (steel suppliers) and downstream (Automobile manufacturers). In addition, most of the supply chain information platforms are independent, and there is no integrated information platform. Therefore, the middleman (FL Company) can’t sufficiently and accurately manage their demand, resulting in inaccurate inventory and backlog of funds. This phenomenon is the so-called Bullwhip Effect. In this thesis, it mainly aims to improve the Bullwhip Effect caused by the FL company’s production of Vehicle Crashworthiness beam. This research is not only to collect and analyze the sales data of the products, but also to use 5W1H method to figure out the current situation and to apply Innovation Matrix to find the problems. Once the problems are identified, the research introduces the Matrix Diagram to seek the solutions. This methodology was applied to Company N, a car manufacturer. The Minimum Order Quantity (MOQ) was reduced from 100 tons to 20 tons. Then, with the Scenario Simulation at Company N, the middleman corrected the originally irregular demand forecast to a regular monthly one. Also, the basis of forecast is changed from the annual sales target to market selling performance. The forecast is then used to adjust the rate of in-ventory of the raw materials from 13% to 0.4%. For the FL company, these are significant improvements of the Bullwhip Effect due to erratic demands, long lead time, inventory backlogs, etc. Keywords: Supply Chain Management、Bullwhip Effect、5W1H、Innovation Matrix