台灣加入WTO之後的產業結構變化之分析

After Taiwan’s WTO Entry and Industrial Structure Change

杜佳峻(Chia-Chun Tu)

指導教授 ： 洪振義

朝陽科技大學/管理學院/財務金融系/碩士(2010年)

摘要

本研究利用產業關聯生產模型，以產業關聯表為分析基礎，推估台灣加入WTO後對產業所帶來之衝擊及影響。並將受加入WTO後波動影響較大之產業部門，分析其對經濟活動的影響要因。
在要因分解分析上，將產業分成農業、製造業及服務業，研究結果發現：一、農業:由於台灣農業技術的提升，在加入WTO後最終需要輸入變化效果方面，沒有因為加入WTO而產生明顯改變。其中最明顯的是輸入率變化效果，由於匯率的波動造成輸入率變化在加入WTO後產生明顯下降的趨勢。二、製造業:由於在自由化程度較高的基礎下，相對影響也較農業輕微，所以國內最終需要變化效果對於製造業生產活動的貢獻呈現一倍正向成長。接著由於我國製造業產品平均關稅在入會前已達先進國家水準，使我國製造業產品有更大的貿易空間，所以在輸入率變化及輸出效果方面在加入WTO後產生正向的助益。三、服務業:在最終需要變化效果及輸出變化效果方面，在加入WTO後有明顯的增加，因為服務業貿易有其特殊性，非單純的「商品」貿易，必須透過於當地投資的方式進行，因此，服務業與農工產品間市場開放所影響之層面，將有所差別。

關鍵字

WTO ； 產業關聯生產模型 ； 要因分解分析

並列摘要

In this study, the production model of industrial relevance, to form the basis for analysis industry association, estimated after Taiwan''s entry into WTO the impact on the industry and the impact brought about. After accession to WTO will be subject to large fluctuations in the industrial sector, analysis of its impact on economic activity to be due.
To be due to decomposition in the analysis, the industry into agriculture, manufacturing and services, the results showed, first, agriculture: As Taiwan''s agricultural technology up grade, after joining the WTO need to enter the changes in the final effect, not because of significant changes arising from WTO accession. The most obvious change is the effect of input rate, as the input rate of exchange rate fluctuations resulting from changes in the accession to WTO marked a downward trend. Second, the manufacturing sector: As the basis for higher levels of liberalization under the influence is relatively minor compared with agriculture, so, ultimately, changes in effect for the domestic manufacturing activity showed double positive growth contribution. Since then China''s average tariff on manufactured goods before the membership has reached the standard of advanced countries, manufactured products to China have more trade space, therefore, rates of change in the input and output effect of the post-WTO accession has positive benefit. Third, the service industry: the need for change in the final results and output change effect, after joining the WTO has increased significantly, because trade in services has its particularity, non-simple "goods" trade, must, through the way of local investment, therefore, between services and agricultural and industrial products affected by the level of market opening, will be different.

並列關鍵字

Factor Analysis Model ； WTO ； Input-Output Analysis

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