本研究探討台灣與南韓從1997年第一季至2009年第三季匯率變動對出口之影響。在凱因斯理論中,貨幣貶值對出口有利,對進口不利。利用單根檢定及共整合檢定加以分析,實證結果發現長期而言新台幣貶值對出口有利,而短期無顯著效果。南韓長期實證結果發現韓圜匯率與出口有正面影響。而短期則與落後3期(季)的匯率有負面影響。因此從台灣與南韓實證發現貨幣貶值在長期下才符合凱因斯理論。研究結果顯示台灣短期新台幣貶值對出口無顯著效果,所以台灣要在短期間利用匯率上升來提振我國出口競爭力,效果將相當有限,因此利用貨幣貶值來救出口並不是萬靈藥,台灣應該要儘速調整產業結構,並進行技術升級,才能強化實質競爭力。
This study from Taiwan and South Korea in the first quarter 1997 to third quarter 2009, the effect of exchange rate movements on exports. In Keynesian theory, currency devaluation on exports, good for importing negative. Using unit root test and cointegration test to analyze empirical results in the long term benefit of NT depreciation on exports, but no significant short-term effect. South Korea won a long-term empirical results show that the exchange rate and exports have a positive impact. And backward short-term is 3 quarter of the exchange rate have a negative impact. Therefore, empirical evidence from Taiwan and South Korea only under the currency depreciation in the long line with Keynesian theory. Short-term results show that Taiwan NT dollar depreciation, no significant effect on exports, so Taiwan should use the exchange rate to weaken the currency in a short period to boost the competitiveness of Chinese exports, the effect will be very limited, so use of currency depreciation to rescue the exports are not a panacea Taiwan''s industrial structure should be adjusted as soon as possible and carry out technical upgrading in order to strengthen competitiveness in real terms.