本論文在探討哪些因素會影響借款人提前清償的行為,雖然借款人提前清償可以降低金融機構壞帳之風險,但也會產生資金流量與利息收益不穩定的風險,因此金融機構在授信房屋抵押貸款時,需要對借款人進行提前清償行為的風險評估。過去有關提前清償之相關研究,在實證方法上常利用羅吉斯迴歸(Logistic regression model)分析借款人提前清償的行為,並估計借款人提前清償之機率。但是借款人決定提前清償與否,除了與個人借款條件及總體經濟變數有關之外,文獻少有考慮會隨時間調整的時間相依變數(time-varying variables),因此本研究採用便於處理時間相依變數的比例危險模型(Proportional Hazards Model, PHM)來探討哪些因素會影響借款人提前清償之行為,期盼可作為銀行授信決策參考,進而減少提前清償所衍生之呆帳損失,亦可供金融機構進行不動產抵押債權證券化之評價參考,以利於分散金融機構授信風險。 實證發現個人借款條件的攤還金額影響最為明顯,亦即攤還的金額越高,越容易有提前清償的情況發生;而失業率與提前清償為正相關,表示失業率越高,提前清償的可能性也越高。
Of this study are to find the determinants of the borrower prepayment behavior. Even though borrower prepayment could reduce bad accounts, cash flow and interest revenue are uncertain. Therefore, financial institution needs to assess borrower prepayment behavior in credit mortgage loans. The present study employs the proportional hazard model to deal with the time-varying problem. Our results show that, installment payment is positive relationship with prepayment, but negative relationship with unemployment rates.