智慧資本、公司治理、效率與危機預警-台灣製造業之實證研究

Intellectual Capital, Corporate Governance, Efficiency and Financial Crisis Warning System -The Empirical Study of Taiwanese Manufacturing Industries

羅巧汶(CHIAO-WEN LO)

指導教授 ： 劉定焜

朝陽科技大學/管理學院/財務金融系/碩士(2016年)

摘要

自雷曼兄弟宣佈倒閉後，全球金融中心重鎮華爾街一夕崩解，骨牌效應不斷蔓延，從美洲到亞洲，從金融業到傳統的民生產業。在全球化影響下，台灣也無法置身事外，不僅金融機構自身難保，企業也面臨了訂單減少、獲利衰退與借貸困難等的經營危機。2008年全球金融風暴造成全球股市及房市下跌、信用緊縮與全球消費驟減等，財務危機事件頻傳，不僅僅造成社會企業內部的嚴重損失，就連企業外部投資大眾的投資也遭受衝擊。
企業財務危機的起因可能是公司的人才流失、智慧資本的價值降低與不穩定，使得對公司價值造成負面影響，或因為經營決策與公司內部資源分配不當，導致財務狀況惡化與造成生產效率不佳，亦可能因為公司內部舞弊，利用會計作假帳，惡意掏空公司資產，或涉及內線交易，刻意隱匿重大訊息與財報不實等人為因素，導致公司面臨營運和財務危機。因此，在面對全球金融風暴後之衝擊與企業爆發財務危機的環境下，企業危機預警機制的建立，顯得相當重要與迫切，若能在財務狀況惡化初期就能察覺，並提供正確訊息給管理者與社會大眾投資人，將有助於降低危機發生的風險，由此可知危機預警機制之探討與建構，確實是一件極為重要的課題。
隨著所得增加，工商服務的發達，臺灣服務業占GDP比重已達六成五，而製造業也約維持在三成左右。然而臺灣製造業相較於服務業更具有競爭力，對GDP成長與經濟成長的貢獻皆普遍高於服務業，且製造業有助於降低景氣的波動，故歐美國家，包括鄰近的日本、韓國，紛紛提出強化製造業發展的政策，藉以強化製造業的發展，由德國製造業始終維持在二成以上可見一斑。
近年多數研究財務危機預警的學者，多數以上市、上櫃個別產業或者以全產業為研究對象，在製造業方面的實證研究較為少見，此外同時納入智慧資本、公司治理與效率之議題亦不多見。因此，有鑑於製造業對於我國的重要性，本研究建構2001至2015年上市 (櫃) 製造業公司之balanced panel data。樣本選取方面，除參考過去較多文獻採用之1:1與1:2模式進行危機與正常樣本之實證配對，並考量1:3之配對比例 (Lee and Teng，2009；蔡明春等人，2009；陳雪芳等人，2010)。之後進一步建構Logistic model，除納入Z-score model之財務變數外，亦考量總體經濟環境對於公司財務之影響，加入總體經濟與過去文獻鮮少探討之風險變數。此外，為了檢視智慧資本、公司治理與效率變數是否影響危機預警之預測率，考量納入與未納入智慧資本、公司治理與效率變數之實證模型。藉此推估不同分類預警模型，何者具有較佳之預測能力，選出適合預測製造業財務危機的機制。
研究結果顯示，財務變數納入智慧資本平均預測率為79.4%；納入公司治理平均預測率為80%；納入效率平均預測率為79.3%；納入智慧資本與公司治理平均預測率為80.2%；納入智慧資本與效率平均預測率為79.5%；納入公司治理與效率平均預測率為80.2%；將所有變數都納入的平均預測率為80.5%，不管是各別納入智慧資本、公司治理及效率變數還是兩兩納入，平均預測率皆有提高，整體而言，納入智慧資本、公司治理及效率提高了製造業公司之預警模型預測率。

關鍵字

危機預警 ； 製造業 ； Z-score 模型 ； Logistic 模型 ； 智慧資本 ； 公司治理 ； 效率

並列摘要

Since Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy, a global financial center- Wall Street is collapse. Domino effect continued to spread, from the Americas to Asia, from the Financial Industry to the livelihood of traditional industries. Under the influence of globalization, even Taiwan can not stay out, not only financial institutions unable to help themselves, but also companies are facing reduced orders, profits decline etc. crisis. The global financial crisis of 2008 resulting in global stock markets and housing market fell, credit crunch, consumption plummeted, not only caused serious loss of business, but also investing public were also a hit.
The causes of the financial crisis may be the company's brain drain, reducing the value of intellectual capital and instability make a negative impact on the value of the company, or the operational decision-making and resource allocation within the company is improper, resulting in deteriorating financial condition and resulting in poor production efficiency, also possible fraud within the company, for false accounting, malicious emptied the company's assets, or involving insider trading, deliberately concealed material information and false earnings and other human factors etc., led to the company operating and financial crisis. Therefore, under the impact of the global financial crisis after and broke out the financial, the establishment of crisis early warning mechanism, it is very important and urgent, if in the financial situation of the deterioration of the early will be able to detect it, and made available to managers and public investors, will help reduce the risk of crises.
With the income increases, business services developed, Taiwan's service sector share of GDP reached 65 percent, the manufacturing sector also remained at about 30 percent. However, manufacturing sector more competitive compared with the service sector, contribution to GDP growth and economic growth is generally higher than the service sector, and manufacturing can help reduce the volatility of the economy, therefore, the United States and Europe, including Japan, Korea, have proposed to strengthen the manufacturing sector policy development, thereby strengthen the development of the manufacturing sector, by the German manufacturing sector has remained evident in the more than 20 percent.
In recent years, most of the financial crisis early warning research scholar to adopt individual industries or in the whole industry as the research object, empirical research in the manufacturing sector is rare, in addition, while incorporating intellectual capital, corporate governance and efficiency issues are also rare. Therefore, in view of the importance of our manufacturing, this study constructs the balanced panel data of manufacturing industry companies in Taiwan from 2001 to 2015, and we follow former literatures to use 1:1, 1:2 and 1:3 patterns on the financial distress and non-financial distress company (see Lee and Teng, 2009, Tsai et al., 2009, and Chen et al., 2010). Then we construct Logistic model for financial crisis precaution model, besides the financial variables of the Z-score model, in addition, we adopt the intellectual capital, corporate governance and efficiency variables, considerations into intellectual capital, corporate governance and efficiency variables and are not included, collocation early warning model whereby different categories, whichever has the better predictive power.
The results show the average forecast rate of all variables is 80.5%. Whether incorporated into individual intellectual capital, corporate governance and efficiency of variable, the average forecast rate has improved. Overall, with the intellectual capital, corporate governance and efficiency have raised the average accuracy rate of manufacturing companies warning model has.

並列關鍵字

Financial warning system ； Manufacturing industry ； Z-score model ； Logistic model ； Intellectual capital ； Corporate governance ； Efficiency

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