共同基金的績效表現是決定於基金經理人的操盤能力,本研究主要從基本分析的觀點,探討公司的財務因素、整體環境的總體經濟指標對於基金經理人的持股行為是否具有一定程度之解釋能力,且探討總體經濟對基金經理人是否有增額的資訊效果。 本研究以電子產業為研究對象,藉由因素分析將16個財務比率萃取因素(構面),接著再利用逐步迴歸選取法,從眾多的財務比率中,找出影響共同基金經理人持股比例的財務比率,最後再加入總體經濟變數進行研究。實證結果發現,首先,運用因素分析進行財務萃取屬性,基金經理人的持股決策會重視獲利能力、償債能力、資產來源及運用和財務結構較佳的公司;再利用逐步迴歸選取發現股票週轉率、股價淨值比、本益比、每股盈餘、營業利益佔實收資本比率、股東權益報酬率是影響基金經理人做持股決策的重要考量;最後加入總體經濟變數,顯示對基金經理人持股決策有更好的影響力,而消費者物價指數、匯率、出口貿易及工業生產指數會進而影響基金經理人的持股決策行為。
The performance of mutual fund is dominant to the stock picking ability of the mutual fund’s manager. This present study posits the basic analysis to investigate the determinant of the stock picking ability of the mutual fund’s manager in terns of the financial ratio and macroeconomic variables. We begin by employing the factor analysis approach to extract the determinants from the sixteen financial ratios in the electronics industry. Followed by the stepwise regression, we set up the model of the stock picking ability of the mutual fund’s manager. We empirically find that the profitability, debt paying ability, good company of assets exercise and financial structure play a crucial role on the stock picking ability of mutual fund’s managers. The mutual fund’s manager also takes a consideration of the stock turnover ratio, market / book ratio, price / earnings ratio, earnings per share, operating profit / actual capital ratio, and return on equity and the macroeconomic variables such as the consumer price index, exchange rate, export trade, and index of industrial production.