企業財務困難階段與特徵之研探

The Research of Financial Distress Stages and Symptom

楊涵雲(Han-Yun Yang)

指導教授 ： 黃素慧

朝陽科技大學/管理學院/會計所/碩士(2009年)

摘要

在這個企業危機頻傳的年代，經常發生許多企業失敗與倒閉的案例，過去有許多學者對於企業財務困難判斷與預警模型的研究，多所著墨，但是發生企業財務困難因素的複雜性，與環境變異性，仍有值得探討的地方。當一家公司發生財務困難，不僅是公司面臨困難而已，也會對社會大眾造成影響，對整個社會、經濟都會有影響的，會造成財務困難的原因很多，包括了經營不善、投資失敗、舞弊、景氣不佳等。
本研究架構預測模型時，以下面步驟選取各階段之預測變數：
(一) 根據第二章的文獻探討，所找出的六方面，分別為獲利能力、財務結構、股權結構、信用評等、公司治理及盈餘管理等這六方面。
(二) 在財務困難發生前期間，將期間分成三階段，將這六方面在這三階段裡分別找出主要特徵，在不同階段將會有不同的特徵。
(三) 利用(二)所找出的特徵建立三階段財務困難預測模型。
(四) 利用2006年及2007年的資料，驗證此三階段財務困難預測模型之預測能力。
本研究結果發現：
(一) 利用t檢定選取出三階段在六個構面裡，各有著不同的特徵。
(二) 利用上述(一)選取之特徵建立預測模型，預測下一年度資料。
(三) 預測模型之特徵是固定的，但預測模型的樣本期間會隨預測年度不同而改變，是為了提高預測準確度。
(四) 實證結果發現不管分割點為何，本研究的三階段預測模型比單一階段的預測模型準確。
由此可知，本研究的預測模型，可由三階段選取六構面的不同特徵，且建立的預測模型準確度是準確的，因此，社會大眾可藉此三階段預測模型，來避免因企業發生財務危機所帶來的傷害。

關鍵詞：財務困難、公司治理、階段性、特徵

關鍵字

階段性 ； 公司治理 ； 財務困難 ； 特徵

並列摘要

In this era of frequent corporate crises, frequent failure of many enterprises and the closure of the case, in the past many scholars have financial difficulties for the enterprises to determine with the early warning model, but the financial difficulties of enterprises happen the complexity of factors, and environmental variability, there are still places worth exploring. Happen when a company''s financial difficulties, not only are companies facing difficulties, but also the community at large impact on society as a whole, the economy will affect the financial difficulties can cause a lot of reasons, including poor management, investment failure, fraud, poor economy.
The present study be made in advance from the ownership structure, profitability, financial structure and so on for the prediction that the financial crisis happened because of corporate non-moment, the point should have different characteristics, so in the financial crisis prediction model should be set up to consider the crisis happen before the stage of evolution before they can have better prediction ability. The present study:
(1) According to the scholars and the present study was to explore the six identified areas, namely, by the profit ability, financial structure, ownership structure, credit rating, corporate governance and earnings management.
(2) prior to the occurrence of financial difficulties during the period will be divided into three stages, these six aspects in this phase were to identify three main features, will be at different stages have different characteristics.
(3) the use of (2) identify the characteristics of the three stages set up the financial difficulties of prediction model.
(4) the use of in 2006 years and 2007 years of data, verify that the three stages of the financial difficulties of prediction model prediction ability , and with the other three single-stage prediction model compared.
This findings discovered that,
(1) T test using a three-stage selection in six dimensions, all have different characteristics.
(2) The use of the above-mentioned (1) establish the characteristics of selected forecasting model to forecast next year''s information.
(3) The characteristics of the forecast model is fixed, but the prediction model of the sample during the year will be different with the forecast change is to improve the forecast accuracy.
(4) The empirical results show that regardless of partition points of the three stages of this study than the single-stage prediction model for accurate prediction model.
The present study found that three- Step have different characteristics, and can be characterized by the establishment of forecasting model, simply change the information to create a model during the study period, the ability to forecast more accurately; The present study is expected to multi-stage prediction model than single-stage prediction model is accurate, and society will be able to multi-stage prediction model, to avoid financial crisis happened because of business brought about by injury.

Key Words: Financial Distress, Corporate Governance, Three- Step Prediction model, Symptom

並列關鍵字

Corporate Governance ； Financial Distress ； Symptom ； Three-Step Prediction model

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