應用模糊理論方法探討產業生命週期曲線-以台灣「兩兆雙星」產業為例

A Study of Industry Life Cycle Using Fuzzy Theory -Strategic Industries in Taiwan as An Example

莊秉煌(Ping-huang Chuang)

指導教授 ： 孫德修 ； 鄭純媛

朝陽科技大學/理工學院/工業工程與管理系/碩士(2009年)

摘要

本研究利用模糊理論對兩兆雙星產業企業年度營業額與企業成立年限建立組織生命週期狀態，但侷限於數位內容產業尚未明確，而生技產業太繁瑣且一致性低，所以針對半導體與彩色影像顯示器兩大產業生命週期來作探討，而生命週期以常態分配為基礎，配合不同環境與決策將使其改變型態，高科技產業一般來說會變形為右偏分配，半導體產業比彩色影像顯示器產業時間較久，資料也較為完整，所以右偏圖形較彩色影像顯示器產業明顯。
以半導體產業而言，因為組織生命分佈結構完整，其生命週期模型可分為創立期、成長期、成熟期、衰退期四大階段，產業若是經過適當轉型成功，便會進入全新的循環期，以半導體產業預測力而言產業第35~50年若技術轉移成功就有機會由衰退期再度進入成長期；而彩色影像顯示器產業組織生命分佈結構較不完整，其生命週期模型可分為創立期、成長期兩大階段。
創立期圖形曲線還未達穩定狀態，有時為正斜率、有時為負斜率、有時斜率為零，不管是公司需求量、資本額、營業額或是員工人數均相對較低；銷售產品及業務波動性也較大；渡過創立期而存活下來的企業開始成長，圖形曲線開始穩定並呈現正斜率狀態，組織內部建制逐漸完整，成長期階段企業最具有競爭能力，具有無限未來性；第三階段開始企業進入成熟期這也是企業最高峰的時期，產品部份必須注意市場佔有率是不是達到飽和，在這個階段除了維持現有狀態外更要積極研發新產品，如果沒有積極開發新市場，在原本市場達飽和業績便不再增加，加上原物料費用、人事費用與銷售費用持續增加，造成獲利下降，就會開始進入衰退期。

關鍵字

彩色影像顯示器產業 ； 半導體產業 ； 模糊理論 ； 產業生命週期

並列摘要

In this research, the fuzzy theory is applying to build business life cycle for yearly sales of a business and age of business and two main industries (two stars) in Taiwan are used as an example. However, the definition of digital content industry is not established precisely and biotechnology industry is too complicated to lack consistency. Therefore, semiconductor and monitor industry will be discussed. In business life cycle, there are four stages based on normal distribution. However, different environment and strategies will change type of distribution such as technology industry is a representation of right skewness and traditional industry is one of left skewness. Since the time of development of semiconductor is longer than monitor industry, its right skewness is clearer than another.
Due to the distribution of organizational life of semiconductor industry is sound, there are four stages in its business life cycle as follow: establishing stage, growing stage, maturing stage, and declining stage. If an industry is transformed successfully, then it will enter a new circulating stage. For instance, when the forecasting of semiconductor in thirty-five to fifty years, it has chance from declining stage to go to growing stage. On the contrary, the distribution of organization of monitor industry is not complete, it only has establishing stage and growing stage.

並列關鍵字

monitor industry ； semiconductor industry ； fuzzy theory ； business life cycle

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