1978年改革開放後,中國大陸的外貿規模日益擴大。近年來,學界普遍認爲貿易開放度是大陸物價波動的原因之一。本文選用1995-2014年中國大陸31省之年度資料,利用Panel Data模型實證分析各省貿易開放度對通貨膨脹率的影響。本文之貿易開放度以各省進出口總額佔GDP的比重表示,通貨膨脹率則以消費者物價指數(CPI)爲基準計算。此外,本文加入人均GDP、金融發展規模、金融發展效率及政府支出佔GDP的比例等控制變量。本文實證結果表明:中國大陸各省的貿易開放顯著緩解了該省的通貨膨脹壓力。控制變數方面,人均GDP、金融發展效率與政府支出佔GDP的比例,均對通貨膨脹率具有顯著的正向影響。
Since Mainland China's reform and opening to the outside world, the scale of foreign trade has been expanding. In recent years, existing researches have reached a consensus that the degree of trade contributes to Mainland China's price volatility. In this paper, we apply the Panel Data Model to examine the effects of Mainland China’s openness on inflation with yearly data which are selected from 31 provinces in Mainland China. The sample period is from 1995 to 2014. The Openness is based on each province's proportion of total import and export in GDP while the inflation rate is calculated from the consumer price index (CPI). We also choose per capita GDP, scale of financial development, financial development efficiency and the government spending as percentage of GDP as control variables. The empirical results show that the openness alleviates the inflationary pressure in this province. In addition, the control variables like per capita GDP, financial development efficiency and the proportion of government expenditure to GDP all have significant positive impacts on inflation.