近年來原油價格成為熱門話題之一,石油是生活中不可或缺的重要原料,油價上漲伴隨而來的是通貨膨脹、經濟不景氣等,因此原油價格與總體經濟變數皆有可能影響股票市場。而台灣、香港、新加坡、韓國等國家於1960年代至1980年代經濟成長快速受到全球矚目,因此本研究使用2004年1月至2010年12月之台灣經濟新報月資料,運用panel data模式研究亞洲四小龍之原油價格與總體經濟變數對股價之影響,其中總體經濟變數包括貨幣供給額、消費者物價指數、海關出口值、匯率等。實證結果顯示原油價格顯著影響股價;在總體經濟變數方面,貨幣供給額對股價有正向的影響,因此政府可利用寬鬆貨幣政策影響股價走勢,使景氣活絡。香港與新加坡之消費者物價指數對股價的影響,在金融海嘯發生後為負向影響。而海關出口值對股價為正向影響,主要是亞洲四小龍均為出口導向之國家。
This paper examines the relationship among oil price, the supply of money, consumer price index, export, exchange rate and the stock market in the NICs, the NICs include Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Korea. The period of the study is from 2004:1 to 2010:12. Initially we use panel data method to select the most suitable model. Findings suggest that oil prices exercise significant positive influence to the stock market. In addition, CPI are negatively influencing the stock market, at a significant level. However, we find the effect of exchange rate on the stock market. Finally, the relationship can be documented between the export and the stock market. The findings of this study are of particular interest and importance to policy makers. The supply of money shocks can explain much more than exchange rate.