環境因素對投資行為影響之探討-以台灣為例

本文主要是探討環境因素對投資行為及投資情緒的影響，並參考學者的文獻資料後，選定四項天氣因素，如雲量、日照時數、氣溫及濕度，再加入經濟因素，即台股指數、台灣出口值與道瓊工業指數，把融資餘額及融券張數作為投資行為之代理變數，研究期間為2008年至2017年共計120筆月資料。研究結果顯示，環境因素中有六項對融資餘額有影響，而融券張數較不受天氣因素影響，推測其原因可能是與科技的進步有關。台灣股票市場結構以散戶投資人為大宗，融資、融券一般為散戶等自然人在使用，人是最容易受到環境因素變化所影響，散戶投資人受影響產生的情緒將他們分類成不同的投資族群，而不同的投資族群會對股票市場有不同的影響，因此本篇論文之結果，給予散戶投資人在環境因素變化時，能用以作投資決策之參考指標。

關鍵字

多變量迴歸；天氣效應；行為財務

並列摘要

This paper focuses on the effect of environmental factors on investment behavior and investment sentiment. On the basis of literature, we include sky cover, sunshine, temperature, humidity as environmental variables. Additionally, the explanatory variables cover export value, TAIEX and Dow Jone Index as economic factors. The proxy variables of investment behavior are the amount of margin and sheet of margins. Respectively. The sample period ranges from 2008 to 2017. The empirical results show that the explanatory others are significantly affect the amount of margin except humidity. We find less evidence that the effect of the environmental factor on the sheet of margins. The reason might be related to the technological progress. The structure of stock market in Taiwan is dominated by individual investors. Financing and securities lending are generally used by individual investors. People are most vulnerable to changes in environmental factors, and individual investors’ sentiments affecting them are classified into different investment groups. Different investment groups might have different effects on the stock market. Therefore, the results of this paper could propose individual investors the ability to employ them as a reference for investment decisions as change in environmental factors.