現金流量與投資之敏感性分析-以金磚四國為例

The Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivity Analysis Evidence from Brazil, Russia, India and China

商琇媖(Shiou-ying Shang)

指導教授 ： 林鳳麗

朝陽科技大學/管理學院/會計系/碩士(2010年)

摘要

現金流量敏感性會隨著公司所處區域、企業文化、經濟背景而異 (Bond, Elston, Mairesse, and Mulkay , 2003) 。高盛公司首席經濟學家吉姆?奧尼爾預測2050年“金磚四國”將超越英國、法國、意大利、德國等西方國家，與美國、日本一起躋身為全球新的六大經濟體。本研究引用Brown and Petersen(2009)的方法，將現金流量區分為正現金流量及負現金流量，探討2000年到2007年金磚四國製造業內部現金流量對資本投資的敏感性。並分析四個國家之差異，提供予投資大眾作參考。
研究結果顯示：金磚四國製造業公司之正現金流量與資本投資皆呈顯著正相關，且在比較了金磚四國製造業公司的正現金流量對資本投資之影響後，可看出俄羅斯製造業公司正現金流量投資於資本支出最多，其次為印度、巴西，中國最少。另外，就控制變數方面可以看出，俄羅斯、印度及巴西製造業於內部資金充裕時，亦會將發行新股之外部資金投資於資本支出，且俄羅斯製造業投資金額最多，印度製造業次之，巴西最少。而印度與中國製造業於內部資金充裕時，亦會將舉借新債之外部資金投資於資本支出，且印度製造業投資金額高於中國製造業。然而，金磚四國中只有印度製造業於內部資金充裕時，同時會將舉借新債及發行新股之外部資金投資於資本支出。
而在負現金流量對資本投資的影響方面，巴西及中國製造業公司，其負現金流量與資本投資皆呈顯著正相關，印度製造業公司則為不相關。另外，就控制變數可以看出，當印度、中國及巴西製造業公司處於負現金流量時，舉借新債與資本支出皆呈顯著正相關，表示當公司處於資金不足的情況下，印度、中國及巴西製造業公司會透過外部融資舉借新債取得資金投資於資本投資。且在金磚四國中，只有印度製造業於內部資金不充裕時，同時會將舉借新債及發行新股之外部資金投資於資本支出。

關鍵字

金磚四國 ； 資本投資 ； 現金流量

並列摘要

With the company''s cash flow sensitivity will be located area, enterprise culture, economic background differences (Bond, Elston, Mairesse, and Mulkay, 2003). Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O''Neill ? 2050 "BRIC" will surpass the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Germany and other Western countries, and the United States, Japan with six among the world''s new economy. In this study, Brown and Petersen (2009) method, will be divided into cash flow positive cash flow and negative cash flow of 2000 to 2007, the BRICs manufacturing internal cash flow sensitivity of capital investment. And analyze the differences between the four countries, available to the investing public for reference.
The results showed: BRIC manufacturing company cash flow and capital investment are factors exhibited a significant positive correlation, and compared the BRIC countries in manufacturing companies are cash flow implications on capital investment, we can see Russia Manufacturing companies are cash flow to invest in capital expenditure, followed by India, Brazil, China at least. In addition, the control variables can be seen, Russia, India and Brazil within the manufacturing sector funded, we will also issue new shares of external resources will be invested in capital expenditures, and the largest amount of investment in the Russian manufacturing sector, followed by the Indian manufacturing industry, Brazil at least. India and China within the manufacturing sector funded, the new debt will also be the external borrowing of funds to invest in capital expenditure and investment in India higher than China''s manufacturing industry. However, BRIC countries, only India''s manufacturing sector in the internal capital adequacy at the same time will borrow new debt and issue new shares of external resources to invest in capital expenditure. In the negative cash flow on capital investment, the Brazilian and Chinese manufacturing companies, the negative cash flow and capital investment factors exhibited a significant positive correlation was not related to manufacturing companies in India. In addition, the control variables can be seen, when India, China and Brazil manufacturing company in a negative cash flow, borrowing new debt and capital expenditure factors exhibited significant positive correlation, that when the company is in the case of insufficient funds, India, China and manufacturing companies in Brazil through new debt to obtain external financing borrowing money to invest in capital investment. And in the BRIC countries, only India, manufacturing in-house funds is not sufficient at the same time will borrow new debt and issue new shares of external resources to invest in capital expenditure.

並列關鍵字

Cash flow ； Capital Investment ； BRIC

參考文獻

金成隆、林修葳與邱煒恒，2005，「研究發展支出與資本支出的價值攸關性：以企業生命週期論析」，中山管理評論，13卷3期，617~643。

謝劍平，1995，「以公司托賓Q比率預測股票對公司投資變動的反應」，管理評論，14卷，33~46。

詹家昌、王冠婷，2005，「股價報酬變異對公司投資決策的影響-考慮公司融資受限的情況」，管理與系統，12卷4期，55~78。

Agca, S., and Mozumdar, A. (2008). The impact of capital market imperfections on investment-cash flow sensitivity. Journal of Banking and Finance, 32, 207–216.

Athey, M. J., and Laumas, P. S. (1994). Internal funds and corporate investment in India. Journal of Development Economics ,45(2),287–303.