臺灣股市的成交週轉率近年來持續下降中,使得臺灣一般大眾的投資人越來越難賺到超額報酬,故臺灣一般大眾投資人較易偏向短線操作臺灣股市以獲取超額報酬,因此本研究欲探討是否有一種簡單又方便的投資參考依據。Diego Garcı, ØyvindNorli (2012) 發現專業的投資經理偏愛投資在公司所在地的當地公司,其研究結果發現經理人所投資在當地公司的股票報酬率勝過投資其他地區的公司之股票報酬率,故本研究根據臺灣證劵分行點的買賣資訊和公司所設立的位置之關係來預測股票短期的報酬率,有地域性股票報酬率和勝率是否有勝過類股或者臺灣櫃檯買賣指數。 本文取用2013年7月1號至9月30號之臺灣櫃檯買賣中心列為警示注意股的17檔股票資料,實證結果顯示:無地域性股票交易次數12次、報酬率94.21%,有地域性股票交易次數15次、報酬率64.11%,這段期間臺灣櫃買中心指數的報酬只有4.86%,由此可知使用警示股作為投資標的能產生優於台灣櫃買中心指數之報酬率,故本研究從地域性來選股,雖報酬率並無優於無地域性股票,但可作為投資時參考的指標方向。
Since 2008 the traded turnover ratio of the Taiwan's stock market fell from 145.44 to 82.64, the general public investors were difficult to earn excess returns in Taiwan. This study is to investigate whether there is a simple and convenient reference for investment. Diego Garcı, ØyvindNorli (2012) found that professional investment managers prefer to invest in local com-panies. The research found that managers who invest in local companies gain more return. This paper studies 17 stocks based on "Taiwan Gre Warning Note" and shows that, for average of three months or lean than five time of the transaction, the average winning rate reaches 63.25%, the average earning rate reaches 71.36%, and, also, the transaction cost can be reduced.