盈餘穩健性與財務預測之關聯性研究

A Study of Association between Earnings Conservatism and Financial Forecast

楊義龍(Yi-Lung Yang)

指導教授 ： 王若蓮

朝陽科技大學/管理學院/會計所/碩士(2013年)

摘要

近年來由國際會計準則委員會(International Accounting Standards Board)及美國財務會計準則委員會(Financial Accounting Standards Board)所組成的會計準則調和委員會將觀念性公報中的穩健原則移除。Basu(1997)以盈餘不對稱時效性模型對穩健性進行衡量，而Khan and Watts(2009)認為Basu(1997)之該模型所依據之部分假設在實際情況難以成立，故將該模型做些微修正。本研究採Khan and Watts(2009)提出之修正後模型為基礎，以台灣2000至2011年之上市櫃公司為觀察對象，進行盈餘穩健性對財務預測之關聯性研究。研究結果顯示，本期盈餘對於預測後一期盈餘以及後兩期盈餘之程度，未符合本研究穩健性與預測性呈反向關係之假說。但在預測營業活動現金流量方面，當企業認列財務數據太過穩健則會導致不利於未來營業活動之現金流量預測。

關鍵字

財務會計 ； 穩健性 ； 財務預測 ； 會計盈餘

並列摘要

In recent years, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) and the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) develop a common Conceptual Framework for Financial Reporting which remove the conservatism from the conceptual framework. Basu (1997) adopted the asymmetric timeliness of earnings to evaluate the conservatism. It implies that conservatism within the same year for all firms in the industry are homogeneous or assumes that the firm’s operating characteristics are stationary (Khan & Watts, 2009); however, this is impossible. To resolve these problems, Khan and Watts (2009) broadened the assumption of homogeneity and stationary in Basu’s method and developed a firm-year conservatism measure. To examine the relationship between earnings conservatism and financial forecast in Taiwan, this study adopted the method proposed by Khan and Watts (2009) as an indicator for measuring accounting conservatism. The empirical results indicate that the prediction ability of the current accounting earnings for the following year earnings did not fit the reciprocal relationship proposed by the research hypothesis. For the firms with much higher accounting conservatism, it will lead to the unfavorable predicability about the future cash flows.

並列關鍵字

Accounting Earnings ； Financial Forecast ； Conservatism ； Financial Accounting

參考文獻

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