長鞭效應的因應對策—以代工業為例

The Strategies to Counter the Bullwhip Effect: OEM/ODM as an Example

張嘉晏(Chia-yen Chang)

指導教授 ： 葉焜煌

大同大學/經營設計學院/事業經營學系所/碩士(2004年)

摘要

供應鏈通常涉及許多公司，每一家公司為了供應其下游顧客的需要，均有賴
於其他公司之原物料、零組件或服務的供應。由於公司一般均是獨立自主經營，
供應鏈下游端成員的行動，可能對上游端成員的營運造成不利的影響。在供應鏈
中，當需求訂單的變動幅度，由下游成員往上游成員擴大的現象發生時，稱之為
長鞭效應。長鞭效應普遍發生在各製造產業的供應鏈當中，當下游成員向上游成
員下訂單後，上游成員將此訊息視為是未來的產品需求，因而據此調整其需求預
測，進而向其上游供應商下訂單。使得在供應鏈的成員當中，愈是上游的廠商所
承受的訂單變異愈大，受害也就越大。供應鏈下游端成員至上游端成員的資訊扭
曲，可能造成供應鏈極度缺乏效率包括：不正確的產品需求預測、庫存的堆積、
因缺貨或延遲供貨導致顧客服務不佳、誤導產能規劃與錯誤的生產排程。
要解決長鞭效應帶來的負面影響，首先必須徹底瞭解其成因，進而才能採取
有效的對策。依學者的探討，造成長鞭效應的原因包括：需求預測更新、批量訂
單、價格波動、以及配給與短缺賽局。本研究以OEM/ODM 製造廠商為實證研究
對象，實證資料將以問卷收集並以層級分析法(AHP)進行分析，由實證瞭解造成
長鞭效應的這些因素之相對重要性，以提出具體之建議以供業界改善長鞭效應的
參考。
研究結果顯示：(1)大家普遍認為產生長鞭效應之主要成因是需求預測問
題，再者就是價格波動難以掌控，進而造成需求的不穩定。(2)當樣本區隔為大
廠商及中小貿易廠商時，則大廠商相較於其他因素，較重視價格波動的這項因
素；然而，中小企業廠商卻較在意需求預測問題。

關鍵字

存貨管理，供應鏈，長鞭效應，代工業

並列摘要

Supply chains often involve linkages among many firms. Each firm depends on
other firms for materials, components, services, and information needed to supply its immediate customer in the chain. Because firms typically are owned and managed independently, the actions of downstream members (toward the ultimate user of the product or service) of the supply chain can adversely affect the operations of upstream members (toward the lowest tier in the supply chain). Minor disturbances in end demand can translate into huge disturbances at upstream suppliers. These dynamics are often referred as the bullwhip effect. This bullwhip effect has traditionally been accepted as an inevitable part of doing business in the electronics industry. The bullwhip effect occurs when demand order variabilities in the supply chain are amplified as they moved up the supply chain. Distorted information from one end of a supply chain to the other can lead to tremendous inefficiencies, including: poor product forecasts, piles of inventory, poor customer service due to unavailable
products or long backlog, misguided capacity plans, and missed production schedules.
Bullwhip effect exists in every manufacturing industry. When a downstream operation places an order, the upstream manager processes that piece of information as a signal about future product demand. Based on this signal, the upstream manager readjusts his or her demand forecasts and, in turn, the orders placed with the suppliers of the upstream operation. Therefore, the orders placed by the more upstream entity in the supply chain have much greater variability. Distorted information has led every entity in the supply chain to stockpile because of the high degree of demand uncertainties and variabilities.
Companies can effectively counteract the bullwhip effect by thoroughly understanding its underlying causes. Therefore, the purposes of this study are: First, to explore the causes of bullwhip effect and countermeasures by literature review. Second, using empirical study to verify the relative importance of factors causing the bullwhip effect and countermeasures. Third, based on the result of literature review and empirical study, this study will poses solid suggestions to the manufacturers for improving the bullwhip effect in their supply chain.
The causes of the bullwhip effect identified by authors include: demand
forecast updating, order batching, price fluctuation, and rationing and shortage
gaming. This study will use OEM/ODM manufacturers as empirical research subjects.
The empirical data will collect by using a mail questionnaire and will be analyzed by using AHP (Analytical Hierarchical Process Method).
Along with the globalization, enterprise must collaborate with the supply chain
network partners. So it is a necessary element for survival to well operate in the supply chain to quickly get in touch with the market, to decline the inventory risk and cost presses and to quick response. In order to satisfy the consumer requirement, promise to fulfill all orders on time, quickly respond the market, avoid the lack of materials or insufficient capability. Improving the bullwhip effect of the supply chain,the Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) is the best method. It can share the inventory information with vendor and purchaser to manage the customer’s inventory level.

並列關鍵字

bullwhip effect ； inventory management ； OEM/ODM ； supply chains

參考文獻

Baljko, Jennifer L. “Expert Warns of Bullwhip Effect,” Electronic Buyers’ News (July

Promotion." Harvard Business Review 68 (March-April 1990): 141-148.

Davis, Tom. "Effective Supply Chain Management." Sloan Management Review

(summer 1993): 35-46.

Avoiding the Bullwhip Effect: A Control Theoretic Approach.” European