台灣於2002年1月1日加入世界貿易組織(WTO)成為WTO第144個會員,加入WTO之後,不僅提昇了台灣的國際地位和對外經貿及國際關係,更讓台灣成為全球經濟體系的一員,因此當2007年金融海嘯發生影響全球經濟時,台灣的各行各業自然是無可倖免,而首當其衝的便是證券業。 本研究將以台灣某K券商下單交易資料為主,應用資料探勘(Data Mining)技術進行個案實證研究,首先使用RFM(Recency、Frequency、Monetary)模型指標取得數據,再透過K-means 集群分析將客戶進行分群,並找出每個群組中指標性客戶在金融海嘯前後的下單行為,將其歸納成一些簡單的規則,作為金融海嘯下台灣股市的避險操作方式,經本論文研究後發現其中最主要的規則即為使用現股限價交易百大權值股。
After became the 144th member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) on January 1, 2002, not only has Taiwan enhanced her international status, foreign trade and international relations, but also become a part of the global economic system. Therefore, when the financial crisis influenced the global economy in 2007, it was inevitable that all trades and professions in Taiwan could hardly survive, and the securities industry, of course, bore the brunt. Based on the trading data of a Taiwan K-broker's orders, this research conducts an empirical case study by means of Data Mining. First we adopt RFM(Recency, Frequency, Monetary) modeling index to get the data, and then group the customers by Cluster Analysis of K-means and find out the ordering behaviours of indicative customers in each group around the financial crisis. We further summarize those behaviours into some simple rules which are considered as the hedging operations for Taiwan stock market under the crisis circumstance. After research, we find the most important rule is to use the current stocks on the price-limited trading of the Top 100 Value Weighted Stocks.