商業保險對不確定性風險管理的處理效應之 因果推論

The Causal Inference of the Treatment Effect of Commercial Insurance on Uncertainty Risk Management

鄭婷尹(Ting-Yin Cheng)

指導教授 ： 鄭亦君

台南應用科技大學/管理學院/國際企業經營系碩士班/碩士(2022年)

摘要

幸福是人人一生追求的目標，而不確定性的風險是幸福的破壞者。相關研究指出，財富與幸福間存在幸福悖論。財富與幸福感之間在幸福悖論，是指在一定的財富範圍內，財富與幸福感間存在正向關係，但當財富超過一定的水準後，財富的增加幸福感並不會同時增加，但很現實的是，當財富減少時，幸福感一定會下降。由此可見財富穩定是幸福的基礎，因此風險管理是維持幸福感的途徑之一。保險制度就是可以做為個人財富風險管理的工具之一。
本研究以探討一般民眾以保險進行的不確定風險管理的效應。以觀察法進行保險持有單數與不確定風險管理效應間的因果推論。統計上一直強調有關係不代表就是因果推論。統計上對因果推論有著嚴謹的態度與方法予以驗證。本研究所採用建立在反事實因果模型的傾向分數配對法就是其中一種方法。研究結果顯示，持有保單數對管理不確定風險所形成的心理幸福感的因果關係依持有數有不同的結果。持有保單數低於3張，高於9張則對心理幸福感無顯著因果關係。持有數在4至8張是不確定風險管理的最佳張數。因此，我們可以說持有保單數也存在幸福悖論，過多的保單對幸福感沒有幫助，而沒有持有保單或持有保單過少，一樣很難有顯著的幸福感提升感。

關鍵字

不確定風險管理 ； 處理效果 ； 傾向分數配對 ； 因果效應

並列摘要

Happiness is the goal of life. The risks of uncertainty are happiness destroyers. Related research points out that there is a happiness paradox between wealth and happiness. The happiness paradox between wealth and happiness means that within a certain range of wealth, there is a positive relationship between wealth and happiness, but when wealth exceeds a certain level, the increase in wealth does not increase happiness at the same time. But the reality is that when wealth decreases, happiness must decrease. It can be seen that financial stability is the foundation of happiness, so risk management is one of the ways to maintain happiness. The insurance system is one of the tools that can be used as a risk management tool for personal wealth.
This study examines the effects of insurance on uncertain risk management for the general population. Causal inference between odds of insurance holdings and uncertainty risk management effects by observational methods. Statistics have always emphasized that a relationship does not mean a causal inference. Statistically, it has a rigorous attitude and method to verify causal inferences.
Statistically, it has a rigorous attitude and method to verify causal inference. The propensity score pairing method used in this study based on a counterfactual causal model is one such method. The results show that the causal relationship between the number of policies held and the psychological well-being formed by managing uncertain risks has different results depending on the number of holdings. If the number of policies held is less than 3, and more than 9, there is no significant causal relationship to psychological well-being. Holding between 4 and 8 is the best number for uncertainty risk management. Therefore, we can say that there is also a paradox of happiness in the number of policies held. Too many policies are not helpful for happiness, and it is difficult to have a significant sense of happiness improvement without holding policies or holding too few policies.

並列關鍵字

uncertainty risk management ； treatment effect ； propensity score matching ； causal inference

參考文獻

參考文獻

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