本研究針對台灣觀光旅遊產業,探討觀光旅遊與總體經濟因素相互關係之探討,利用單根檢定、Johansen共整合檢定、Granger 因果關係檢定模型、向量自我迴歸模型及向量誤差修正模型來分析觀光旅遊的來台人數、觀光收益及股價指數與總體經濟因素之間的相互關係。變數選取自台灣經濟新報(TEJ)、TWSE 臺灣證券交易所與觀光局,期間為2002年1月至2012年12年之月資料,採用台灣觀光股價指數、觀光來台人數、觀光收益、國內生產毛額、消費者物價指數、匯率等變數進行實證分析。 實證結果顯示:國內生產毛額與消費者物價指數、觀光收益、匯率、觀光股價指數及觀光來台人數間存在著長期均衡關係。消費者物價指數與觀光股價指數、觀光股價指數與匯率存在著因果關係。
This research is in view of Taiwan sightseeing trip industry, discusses the sightseeing trip and discussion of overall economic agent reciprocity, analyzes the coming to Taiwan population to sightseeing trip, the sightseeing income and the stock price index overall economic agent using the simple root examination and Granger causal relation examination model whether has its influential. The variable selection reported (TEJ) from the Taiwan economy newly, in this period was January, 2002 to 2012 12 years of month material, carried on the empirical analysis with Taiwan sightseeing stock price index and sightseeing coming to Taiwan population, the sightseeing income, domestic essence GDP and consumer price index, exchange rate and other variables. The real diagnosis result showed: The gross domestic product, consumer price index, tourism earnings, exchange rates, stock indices and sightseeing tour to Taiwan exists between the number of long-run equilibrium relationship. CPI and tourism stock index, stock index and exchange rate sightseeing causal relationship exists.