美國保險產業之廠商成長分析

The Research of the Firm Growth Analysis of the Insurance Industry in U.S.A.

張嘉宏(Chia-Hung Chang)

指導教授 ： 朱曉萍

嶺東科技大學/管理學院/高階主管企管碩士在職專班/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6823/LTU.2011.00011

摘要

過去對廠商成長是否與廠商的規模無關的研究，主要是利用IPS與MADF來檢定。然而，因使用一致的落遲檢定，容易造成偏誤的結果。本研究主要利用Breuer et al. (2001)的Panel SURADF檢定，分析美國保險產業中的廠商成長是否獨立於保險公司的規模，並驗證Gibrat’s (1931)所提出的吉伯特法則。在樣本選擇上，本研究利用美國保險產業1990年至2007年間的淨資產，來檢定10家在美國的人生保險廠商以及30間財產險保險廠商。實證結果發現，在美國的人生保險廠商中，10家有7家檢定出具有恆定性以及在財產險保險廠商中，30家有18家廠商檢定出具有恆定性，顯示美國保險產業與財產險保險產業，大都不符合吉伯特法則(Gibrat’s Law)，美國保險產業與財產險保險產業的規模與成長率有關。

關鍵字

吉伯特法則 ； 非定態 ； 美國保險公司 ； SURADF檢定

並列摘要

In this study, the newly-developed Panel SURADF tests advanced by Breuer et al. (2001) are used to investigate whether the growth rate of American insurance companies is independent of their size, as postulated by Gibrat’s (1931) Law of Proportionate Effects. Time-series data for the net assets of 10 life insurance companies and 30 property-casualty insuarance companies in U.S.A. during the 1990 to 2007 period are used. Whereas other panel-based unit root tests are joint tests of a unit root for all members of a panel and are incapable of determining the mix of I(0) and I(1) series in a panel setting, the Panel SURADF tests investigate a separate unit root null hypothesis for each individual panel member and are, therefore, able to identify how many and which series in the panel are stationary processes. The empirical results from several panel-based unit root tests indicate that the net assets of all firms studied here are non-stationary, implying that Gibrat’s Law holds for all firms; however, Breuer et al.’s (2001) Panel SURADF tests unequivocally indicate that Gibrat’s Law is only valid for 3 of life insurance companies and 12 of property- casualty insurance companies.

並列關鍵字

Gibrat’s Law ； Non-Stationary ； insurance companies ； Panel SURADF Tests

參考文獻

參考文獻

一、英文部份

Baumol, W, 1971. Environmental prolection, internationcil spillovers and trade. Wicksell Lectures 1971. Stockholm:Almqvist & Wiksell.

Baumol, W.J. (1962),“On the Theory of Expansion of the Firm ”U The American Economic ReviewU, 52, 5, 1078-1087.

Breuer， J. B.， McNown， R.， & Wallace， M. S. (2001). Misleading inferences from panel unit-root tests with an illustration from purchasing power parity. Review of International Economics， 9(3)， 482-493.