競爭對分析師盈餘預測績效之影響

伴隨著經濟環境的日益變遷，公司必須不斷創新以在競爭市場中生存，因此探討競爭有其必要性。本研究以券商分析師追蹤、公司規模與產業屬性三項指標當作競爭的代理變數，並區分成低競爭與高競爭群組，進一步探討競爭程度差異對盈餘預測準確度、離散程度、特定公司的盈餘預測績效與所有其他公司的盈餘預測績效之影響。研究結果顯示：1.以券商分析師追蹤當作競爭的代理變數時，高競爭群組對特定公司或所有其他公司的盈餘預測績效表現均優於低競爭群組。2.以公司規模及產業屬性(科技業與非科技業)當作競爭的代理變數時，規模小與產業屬性為非科技業的低競爭群組，對特定公司或所有其他公司的盈餘預測績效表現均優於高競爭群組。3.不論是以券商分析師追蹤、公司規模或產業屬性當作競爭的代理變數，高競爭群組的離散程度均大於低競爭群組。

關鍵字

競爭；盈餘預測；分析師

並列摘要

With growing changes in the economic environment, companies need to continuously innovate to survive in competitive markets. Therefore, it is necessary to discuss the topic of competition. This study aims to use three measures─brokerage analyst following and company size and industry type as the proxies for competition. The sample is divided into two groups─low competition and high competition to explore how different competition impacts earnings forecast accuracy, degree of dispersion, earnings forecast performance of a specific firm or others. The results will show that the earnings forecast performance of a specific firm or others that are high competition groups are better than low competition groups when brokerage analyst following is used as the proxy. Second, earnings forecast performances of a specific firm or others of low competition groups that are small or non-technology companies are better than high competition groups when company size and industry type are used as the proxy. However, degree of dispersion of high competition groups are greater than low competition groups no matter if brokerage analyst following, company size, or industry type are used as the proxy.