臺灣經濟成長因素分析

本研究以 Ram (1985) 所提出的模型為基礎，除勞動力與資本存量的投入之外，再以貿易開放度以及貿易條件做為生產面的投入項，並將台灣自 1967 年－ 2010 年此段期間的經濟發展過程分為 3 個時期：設置加工出口區 (1967－1986)、進口自由化 (1987－2001)，以及加入WTO 之後 (2002－2010)。針對此三個階段，再對 1967－2001、1987－2010 以及 1967－2010 等此三個期間，以本研究的實質產出模型，對此 6 個期間進行變數間關係的估計及分析。本研究的主要發現為，第一，分別以在 6 個期間當中，貿易開放程度的對經濟發展的影響性來看，以台灣為例，在短期間內，市場的開放會對經濟成長產生負面衝擊，但長期而言，一個開發中國家國內市場及貿易的開放程度越高，對該國的經濟成長會有顯著的正面助益。證實了過去文獻中所闡述的結論，對開發中國家而言，「出口貿易」此一因素對於經濟成長的正面影響會更為顯著；第二，以台灣為例，不論短期或是長期，固定資本增加 (投資) 對經濟成長皆有正面的助益；第三，同樣以台灣為例，勞動力的成長，在長期而言對經濟成長有正面的助益；第四，藉由鄒氏檢定 (Chow Test) 的結果，確認了本研究所外生的時間切割點，與樣本資料中確實的結構轉折點是一致的。亦證實了本研究先前的假設，實證模型中的自變數，確實會因為政策重點的不同，而對經濟成長產生有不同的影響性。

關鍵字

經濟成長；貿易開放度；出口貿易；固定資本；勞動力

並列摘要

In this study, the model proposed by Ram (1985), in addition to the inputs of labor and capital stock, trade openness and terms of trade as input in production-and Taiwan from 1967 - 2010 during this period, the economic development process is divided into three periods: set the export Processing Zone (1967-1986), import liberalization (1987-2001), as well as accession to the WTO (2002-2010). For three stages, 1967-2001,1987-2010 and 1967-2010 in three periods, the real output of the model in this study, this six during the estimation and analysis of the relationship between the variables. The main findings of this study, first, respectively, 6 during which the impact of trade openness on economic development point of view, Taiwan, for example, in a short period, the opening of markets on the economy growth negatively impact, but in the long run, the higher the degree of domestic market and the liberalization of trade in a developing country, the country's economic growth will have significant positive benefits. Confirmed the conclusions set forth in the past literature for developing countries, the export trade of this factor for the positive effects of economic growth will be more significant; Second, Taiwan, for example, whether short term or long-term, fixed increase in capital (investment) all have a positive benefit to the economic growth; the same to Taiwan, for example, labor force growth, economic growth in the long run have a positive benefit; Fourth, by the Chow test’s results, to confirm the time of this study exogenous cutting point is consistent with sample data, the exact structure of a turning point. Also confirmed the previous assumption of this study, the independent variables in the empirical model does because of the different policy priorities, while economic growth have different effects.