企業財務危機預警影響因素之研究 - 以台灣電子業上市櫃公司為例

自2008年金融海嘯過後迄今，台灣每年仍有企業因經營不善引發財務危機走上破產倒閉之案例，部分上市企業因未能及早查覺經營危機，錯失調整因應時機，終致黯然下市結局，對相關利害關係人影響至鉅。企業財務危機預警之研究一直廣為各界關注，本研究擬著眼於一般大眾較易獲得之財報資訊，探討財務比率與企業危機預警之關聯，以便利未具財務背景之外部利害關係人，容易判讀預警訊息而採取適當避險行為。本研究以2008年至2019年期間，因財務危機被公告終止上市櫃之電子業公司為研究對象，以電子業之子產業營業項目相同者為同一類別，據以篩選樣本，取得危機公司31家，配對正常公司62家做研究樣本，並以危機公司第一次被變更為全額交割股之時間點為危機發生日，取其危機發生前三年之年度財務報表為研究資料，運用羅吉斯迴歸分析進行實證分析。實證結果顯示，危機發生前一年具顯著預警效果者為總資產成長率及現金流量比率，整體模型預測準確率達88.2%。危機發生前二年具顯著預警效果者為現金流量比率，整體模型預測準確率達80.6%。危機發生前三年呈現顯著預警效果者為每股盈餘及速動比率，整體模型預測準確率達78.5%。前述4項具顯著預警效果之財務變數，與企業發生財務危機均呈負向影響∘

關鍵字

財務危機；電子業；財務比率；羅吉斯迴歸分析

並列摘要

The 2008 global financial crisis had caused many Taiwanese companies gone bankrupt due to mismanagement. Listed companies failed to detect business crisis in advance, missed the opportunity to make adjustment to the crisis, leaded to sadly delist their securities and many stakeholders thus suffered the loss. This research aimed to explore the relationship between financial ratios and signs of financial crisis on financial reports in order to benefit external stakeholders to foresee the crisis and take precautions. This research targeted on companies in the electronic industry which delisted their securities due to financial crisis from 2008 to 2019, samples were collected from TEJ with 31 delisted companies and 62 listed companies. Logistic regression model was used to analyze data. The empirical results revealed that, the total assets growth rate and cash flow ratio showed at significant level in logistic regression model for one year prior to the business crisis; the overall model forecast accuracy rate is 88.2%. Cash flow ratio showed at significant level in logistic regression model for two year prior to the business crisis, the overall model forecast accuracy rate reaches 80.6%. Earnings per share and quick ratio showed at significant level in logistic regression model for three year prior to the business crisis, and the overall model prediction accuracy rate is 78.5%.

並列關鍵字

financial crisis ； electronic industry ； financial ratio ； logistic regression analysis

參考文獻

林淑萍，黃劭彥，蔡昆霖(2007)。企業危機預警模式之研究 - DEA-DA、邏輯斯迴歸與類神經網路之應用。會計與公司治理，4(1)，35-56。doi:10.30139/jacg.20070 6.0002

徐中琦與劉皇佑(2010)。考量景氣循環與產業因素下的財務危機預警模型–邏輯斯迴歸與DEA-DA方法的應用。風險管理學報，12(2)，157-183。doi:10.30003/jrm.2 01009.0001

張大成，林郁翎，林修逸(2007)。應用市場資訊於企業危機預警之研究。運籌研究集刊，6(1)，1-18。doi:10.7047/lrr.200706.0001

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企業財務危機預警影響因素之研究 - 以台灣電子業上市櫃公司為例

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